By 2015, six years from now:
- 74 Million wireless folks in the US alone
- 145 TB of wireless data. Somehow, I don't think this is all 3G, LTE, or whatever comes after. I'm sure a large chunk of that will be Wi-Fi.
- 24 Million will watch video using laptops or netbooks and account for another 311 TB of monthly data.
- Competition will drive device costs down for users. Hey, I'm for that any day of the week.
- 64% Of all phones will be smartphones.
- Increase in touch screen adoptions.
The second thing the report doesn't appear to address is the uptake of the tablet and MID market. Like other folks, I think this area is set to explode. Sacrificed will be the netbook market. The netbooks don't leave a lot of room for the computer manufacturers to make money. But the tablet market represents a huge opportunity for jsut about everyone. Memory makers, pc manufacturers, chip companies, and outfits that make the screens.
Lastly, 64% of all phones sold will be smartphones. Let's put a bit of perspective on this. Say 2015, number of phones and devices sold to be around 1.5 billion globally. 64% Of 1.5 billion is 960 million smartphones or mobile devices like the iPhone. Let's assume for a sec that the predicted marketshare for some of the devices out are correct. Here are what the device makers are set to sell in 2015.
- Nokia - 374.4 Million units (I think Nokia will see a much bigger drop than analysts have the guts to predict).
- Android - 139.2 Million units (I think it can be more)
- Apple - 131.52 Million units (right now, it's about 25 million - huge jump, and not counting iPod Touches)
- Windows Mobile - 122.9 Million units (WM 7 is rumored to be out in 2011 now. This can be lower)
- Blackberry - 120 Million units (I think this is about right)
- Palm - 20.16 Million units (assuming Palm is still around then)
- Linux (others) -51.8 Million units (no comment)
So, folks, that's a lot of smartphones and mobile devices to be sold in 2015 using 2012 forecasted breakdowns. Regardless of how in accurate that these numbers are, it's more about the volume. Personally, I think smartphones accounting for merely 64% by 2015 is a bit low.
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