Thursday, August 18, 2011

Moammar Gadhafi Prepares To Leave Libya

According to NBC, Libya’s dictactor, Moammar Gadhafi is making plans to leave the capital, Tripoli, along with his family and head to Tunisia where he is likely to have found refuge.

This development came after an increasing number of reports of rebel successes.  I’ll be honest.  I did not give any credence to them because it has been such a seesaw civil war for the last few months.  And even after NATO entered the war on the size of the rebels, there was talk about how fractious the opposition was and how ill-equipped.

Then came word that that the chief commander of the rebel army was assassinated.

If the NBC report turns out to be true, this is a welcoming development for the allied forces and participants in the NATO mission.

Of course, fighting isn’t going to end the moment Gadhafi and his family leaves.  I’m sure some loyalists will continue fight, there will be paybacks, and it’s possibly we can see a small of potent Iraq type of insurgency.  Remember, the soon-to-be former strongman is probably still well connected and rich.  He could have a surprise or two for the rebels.

On top of that, it remains to be seen who will control of Libya and what form of government will be born out of all this.

How did we get here?  Libya was swept up in the Arab Spring rebellion that saw Tunisia and Egypt's political structure change overnight.  The Syrian government continues to deal with its own rebels.  Will we see a oh-and-four for totalitarian governments in the Middle East?


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