Tablets: Post PC Computing? Is iPad Growth Too Fast?

Given how fast the iPad 2 is selling compared to the original iPad a year ago and the growth of the whole ecosystem that supports it, I wonder if the tablet market, specially one that is dominated by one player, is growth too fast.  And why is it growth so fast?   

This year, it's been estimated that Apple will sell about 30 million iPads, quite possibly 45 million with a few really high-end predictions putting it at 60 million.  Let's just take the 60 million iPads for 2011 and say Apple manages to sell 60 million by 2013.  Sit back and take a look at those numbers.  That's a big big jump from 2010 to 2011, about 2x.  Then from 2011 to 2013, another 2x.  

By 2013, the tablet market as a whole may reach 100 million tablets.  Then where would it go from there?  200 million in another 24 months?  Here's where post-PC comes into play.  Something has to give.  That means laptop sales, with the netbook segment of the market having already collapsed, could suffer a cripple blow that it might not recover from.  Laptops, and some desktops, will still continue to have a place in society, in business for sure.  However, PC in homes will likely diminish greatly.  

In the early 2000s, Microsoft pushed the Windows Media Center, basically a customized Windows with added media software, as the center of a home entertainment system.  Obviously, even Microsoft's dominance in the PC operating system has not helped its push into the living room.  Instead, it has found greater success selling the Xbox. Now, Google is trying it hand with Google TV, so far, met with muted reception at best.  Even, Apple has largely failed to light things up with Apple TV.

And this is also one market that the iPad could potentially find success.  With the introduction of Airplay, the user can stream video and music wirelessly to accessories like stereo systems and HDTVs.  Yes, HDTV becomes just another accessory in the home.  Of course, to stream to the television today, you still need the Apple TV.  This is why there's rumblings that Apple may be looking to license Airplay to manufacturers.  (One factor that hardware makers do not have control over is the content.  Apple, Samsung, Sony, and Microsoft might be able to provide the architecture but without the content, it would be useless.  This is why an ecosystem like iTunes and what Microsoft and Sony has built out on the consoles will be very critical to their continued successes.)

And we come back to growth.  How much more growth can the tablet market, with Apple retaining a large piece of the pie, sustain?  If the tablet can take the place of game consoles and media centers, I would say it can continue to grow at its current pace for at least another decade.  

It also depends the evolution of apps and the nature of productivity on the tablets.  It is possible in ten years, a majority of mobile warriors from the corporate work carry around tablets instead of laptops.  

And to continue growing, tablets will need to a lot of help in the education market.  Yesterday, Tim Cook, Apple's COO, said iPad adoption in the education market has already reach a 1 to 1 parity with Macs. That is quite an impressive feat for a device that did not exist 13 months ago.  The iPad was just built for the k-12 market.  We'll see an explosion of iPads in schools in 2011-12 owing largely to the ease of use and plethora of educational apps.  The only folks who will be hurt by this are laptop makers and printers that print textbooks.  Maybe the early go getters in the backpack market can benefit from this shift in mobile computing in schools.

Still, a lot of moving pieces have to go the tablet's way for it to continue growing at the pace its at now.  Continued innovation followed by revolutionary thinkings about traditional computing and content distribution.  Amazon has gotten into the music locker business without the blessing of the studios and looks like HP might try to do the same.  We'll see how all this play out this summer.  If the stars align just right, perhaps we just might see 60 million iPads sold through 2011 instead of "just" 30 million.

Foursquare Execs On Apple Campus

It's late April and still no iOS 5 intro. Still, something is cooking over at Apple. And this is an example of what might be in store. Foursquare execs were found on Apple campus.

Would anyone just visit Apple for the heck of it? Maybe. However, there is a strong possibility that they had a meeting there. After all, checking into Apple campus is a pretty exciting thing considering all the wild speculations, even from myself, about Apple can transform MobileMe into.

Would you want a free MobileMe account with check-ins that might have special deals only for iOS users?

You bet I would!

Here is where things are interesting and it isn't just some random check-ins that some people do when they drive by randomly.

Erin Gleason, the public relations manager, checked in and mentioned she was moving into the next meeting.

Then the next location of the check-in was was at Apple. The check-in was done by Dennis Crowley, with Gleason present as well as Foursquare's business dev and partnership organizer.

Interesting, eh?

More at MacNN.

Note: Who is Dennis Crowley? How about the co-founder of Foursquare.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPod touch

Competitors Make It Easy On Apple - Maybe Through 2013 or More

This was suppose to be the year that competitors put a stop to the iPad assault on the tablet.  Rather than anything that has taken the consumers by storm, the Xoom and Playbook are filled with reviews about the great potentials these tablet platforms possess.  Howeer, in the wrap-up sections, it's all been "when the updates come...".

I'm sure Apple's first mover position has advantages but it can't be all that.  Forget about the lack of lines at Best Buy or anywhere else in Canada where RIM has home-court advantage, what's disconcerting is that the executives at these companies are clueless or in denial.  

I'm generally upbeat about things but for the rest of 2011, I'm not about the tablet market.  

Here's one platform I'm holding out for that I think can still give Apple some competition.  HP's Web OS Touchpad. As long as they don't rush it out like Google and RIM did with theirs, they ought to have some awesome features that can light a fire on the tablet market.  

Apple will announce their earnings today and I do not anticipate great numbers for the iPad sales because of the issues of parts constraints.  I think this is an opportunity for Apple's competitors to reboot of sort.  

For Apple fans, let's be honest.  Competition would be good for us.  If not for the rushed jobs from Google, the Xoom should have a lot more compelling (100K rumored to have been sold isn't a bad number...just don't compare it to the iPad).  

External Keyboards for the iPad - Not Necessary At All

I've been typing on my iPad for more than a year now. And I don't think I'm alone in saying that I like the virtual keyboard very much. Light touches and generally accurate if you learn to trust it. However, I think I am in the minority on this issue. It's not because there are most people who don't like typing on the iPad. Rather, it's because most people don't type on the iPad.

Either way, is there a need for those cases outfitted with physical keyboards that turns the iPad into a netbook?

First of all, I don't think I've seen one that I like. I don't like the Kensington rubber keyboard. It's, well, rubbery. And it's not the only maker of keyboard-combo-cases that use a silicone or rubber cover. There are also ones with hard cases but they are still far from perfect. The Zaggmate case has these side walls that, from the pictures, feel weird to me.

Besides the fact that I haven't found the perfect keyboard with a case, I don't think I really need one. And I think more and more people are realizing that as well.

Once I get into a rhythm (and inspired), I can hack out a good page or two relatively quickly on the iPad. In coffee shops that I've seen, people using their iPads they type are increasing little by little.

For the rest, they seem to be using their iPads to consume media than actually doing work on there. For instance, while I was waiting for my car to be ready at the dealership today, there were quite a few iPads. Six that I could see. And everyone of them seemed to be reading or watching videos on them. No typing. They've got cases but they appear to be the standard Apple cases. No keyboards.

I'm not saying that there is no need for these keyboard cases at all. I'm just not sure they will have mainstream appeal for a major of the iPad market.

Efficient Wireless Sync And Streaming Takes Time And Valuable Battery Life

(This is a must read post from Apple fan, John Gruber on "Cutting the Cord".  It a very good analysis on why we're just are not to leave the PC behind when trying to get media onto our mobile devices.  I've offered a few notes myself below.)

One of the issues with regards to mobile is that a lot of them requires the user to still sync it with a PC.  Specifically, we are talking about Apple iOS ecosystem here.  Android, on the other hand, is all set to go once you get it out of the box.  Having said that, there is a distinct difference between activation and sync and loading up the mobile devices with apps and media.

To date and as far as I know, all Android devices are ready to be used once the user activates it wirelessly.  There is no need plug it into a PC first.  Simply type in your Google information (or set one up if you don't have one) and you're off to go.  And in the background, data is by synced.  

On the other hand, all iOS devices require that you put them into a PC and let iTunes do all the work for you.  It's why at the Apple store, they offer to get things up and going for you.  Simple as it is, it does take an extra step.  

Now comes the hard part of syncing that I think no mobile problem has solved.  Say you've got a lot of apps, music, and video.  What then?  Here is where iOS have an advantage that over other devices and why we still cannot cut the cord yet  

Say you've got 28 GB of apps and media you need to sync with your new device.  Or 60 GB if you've got a 64 GB iPad?  Let's take it a step further.  120 GB should someone come up with a device capable of hold that much storage.  You seriously want to sync all that from the cloud?  

And even if you want to, there is no way to do that just now.  Amazon just launched its music cloud storage (which I recommend everyone take a serious look at it).  Amazon is taking the first step towards a future some of us want.  Still, we are a long way off.  5GB from Amazon for free is nice but it's still a far cry from the 300 GB media library that I've got.  

And yes, Apple and Google are probably working towards their own cloud solutions for mobile users and I suspect that we'll stream most of the media should that day come.  But that is still a long way off until the solutions are robust enough.

So that's one reason why we're not ready for wireless syncing.  What's the other?

Wireless and Battery life.  Imagine trying to sync GBs of data.  One, never mind that carrier's monthly limitation would be in one day but the wireless networks simply aren't ready to handle the load of cloud storage.  So that means we'll be stuck on WiFi.  That means being at home or office.  That also means being near a PC.  And with Thunderbolt on Macs now, why would you use the slower WiFi sync when you can speed things up with a faster Thunderbolt connection?

Then there's the battery life.  If you're on a tablet like the iPad or Xoom that offers 10-ish hours, you might be okay with cloud syncing or streaming.  If you're on an power-hungry Android device, you can bet you'll be plugged into an outlet.  That horrendous 3 hours of battery life some Verizon Thunderbolt users are now getting?  Try living with two hours or less if you're on the LTE network while streaming an HD video.  

So when can we cut the cord?  No one know where Amazon is going with their music locker.  So far, Amazon has not received licensing from the music studios and it has said it does not require an additional agreement to offer it.  I agree.  But we still have to see what its competitors plan on offering.

Google is rumored to be close to offering its own solution.  And my money's on Google leveraging its massive cloud system that we already use for our webapps.  I've already got like 8GB on my Gmail that I don't use.  I can totally see Google easily offer another ten or even fifty GB of storage just for Android users.  

As for Apple, who knows.  Wall Street guys would have us believe they know.  My guess is as good as theirs.  At the end of the day, only Apple knows how they want to approach cutting the cord.  I know this about Apple's solution to this and cloud storage.  When Apple is ready to unveil it, it will be seemless and easy to use and tied into the iOS-iTunes ecosystem.

More at Daring Fireball.

"Do Not Track" Option Already in Firefox, Coming Soon To Safari

Most people don't know this but cookies are not just for monsters and children (or me).  They're trackers, simply no way of putting this delicately, that are probably following you wherever you go on the Internet

The Federal Trade Commission has called for online advertisers like Google to provide a mechanism for users to opt out of being tracked.  Personally, that's the stupidest thing I've heard of  Why should users have to opt out?  It's like Facebook all over again.  Give these guys an inch, they'll take a mile.

So Mozilla built into Firefox 4 a more comprehensive option to block tracking.  IE9 from Microsoft has it and Apple's Safari will soon join these two browsers with the feature.

So, if you don't like being followed, check out Firefox and IE.  From what I gather, it's not a perfected solution but it's a start.  Congressional action may be coming to help guard user privacy.  It'll probably have more bark than bite given expected intense lobbying from the industry but, again, it's a start

I'll get into how this works later when I have had a chance to check it out for myself.  

I do want to mention that Google is probably not happy about this. After all, knowing about everything they can about us is how they make money.  It's why many of its services are free.  Ads.  And Google does offer an extension for Chrome.  I thought I mention this because many in the media are suggesting that Google is alone on this issue.  (More on Google's own "Do Not Track" implementation)

More at Arstechnica, PC World, Macrumors.

Note:  One might say that it's finally good to have Apple on board with this.  

iPads Putting A Hurt On PC Sales

Acer's PC share took a huge dive.  Recesson?  Nope?  Intense competition from HP and Dell?  Not exactly.  But there was competition in a big way and it was called the iPad.  The top 3 PC makers in the world were hit and hit hard as both Dell and HP lost 2% and 3% respectively while Acer, who relied on netbook sales, has seen a dramatic collapse.

Acer's problem being netbooks exacerbated its fall but the market as a whole has taken a hit from the hottest new mobile phenomenon.  And let's be honest here.  Analysts and what-have-you will call it the tablet market but it's really just the iPad  After all, during this dramatic fall on PC sales, it was pretty much just the iPad owning 80-90% of the tablet market.

In the next 12-18 months, we'll start to see the iPad's share as a percentage of tablet sold (not pushed out to vendors) drop.  Then we can truly call the tablet market for what it is.

And in 12-18 months, I fully expect more shrinkage in the PC, specifically, the laptop market, as iPad and Android devices really take it to the PC guys.  

For instance, Acer's Inconia will debut in a couple of weeks for just $450 with similar specs to the Xoom.  And not only that, it'll likely drop to about $399 by Christmas.  

If you're an average Joe consumer looking for a secondary device to use for day-to-day computing, surfing the web, checking e-mails, updating your social networks, you're gonna want to pick up a tablet.  Plus, the 8-10 hours of battery life is a better bet when than the 2-4 hours you get on a low-end laptop.

And look for PC sales drop to accelerate as corporate drones are issued iPads in place of HP or Dell laptops.  And it's going to happen.  Why do you think HP in such a rush to push out the Web OS Touchpad.  Why do you think a "half-baked" Playbook from RIM with missing apps is going on sale in a couple of weeks?  

I think it's too early to call it but tablets in general are making a convincing case that it will replace PCs in homes and offices.

More at Arstechnica and All Things D.