iMessage Versus Everyone Else; Developers Has To Evolve Or Become A Wiki Has-Been

One of the best examples of survival of the fittest, evolutionary pressure, or natural selection can be seen in how the mobile market is evolving. And with the introduction of iMessage in iOS 5, due this fall, we are seeing a lot of changes, or talk of changes in SMS, and how others like RIM's messaging implementation will be affected.

iMessage is already being herald as a winner. In the past couple of weeks, I have tried a few multi-platform messaging apps that served well enough. However, as with anything Apple, they can encroach at any moment into an field or function, that apps served, not previously available in its OS.

Developers of Whatsapp, Kik, KakaoTalk, and probably a couple of dozens others face a difficult choice this fall. Innovate or attempt to survive on other mobile platforms and leave iOS mostly to iMessage.

Like I've mentioned before regarding iCloud's impact on other cloud storage solutions, incumbents like Dropbox can see a silver lining in this. Apple competition does not necessarily mean the end of the world. There are positive examples of how Apple helped competitors.

• Just like the iPhone brought a lot of attention to smartphones.
• iTunes made it okay to download music.
• iOS-based Apple TV has been great business for Roku.
• iPad has developed a whole new mobile computing market that Microsoft previously failed to ignite on fire.  While sales of non-iPad competitors haven't caught on, it is only a matter of time before Android, Web OS, Playbook, and even Windows 8 begin to serve as strong alternatives to Apple's tablet offerings.

I am sure there are a couple of other examples. I reckon iMessage will force many innovate. And innovate goes both ways, doesn't it? Apple has a history of developing a great app only to allow it to languish. Sometimes, they come up with an incredible update such as Final Cut or allow it to due a quiet death (I am beginning to think iWeb and Ping will go down the latter path).

What of Blackberry Messaging, BBM? Word on the blog street is that RIM will release an app for both Android and iOS. And WSJ reports that Google is working on their own multi-platform messaging app or reinventing gTalk to compete.

So, I think messaging platforms will benefit from the attention that iMessage is going to bring. Instant messaging could also get a second wind as a result.

Everyone wins right? Wrong. iMessage, BBM, Google's offering, and the other messaging apps as a whole will put a big dent into the SMS growth - a cash cow for the wireless cartels across the world.

I don't have to tell you just what a rip-off SMS is. And I am safely in the majority as far as this opinion goes. While analysts do not see a sudden torrential shift in the messaging market, I think they are wrong. Dead wrong.

I predict a huge drop in the next 12-18 months as the revenue from texting takes a big hit. Just like the app developers threatened by iMessage, the wireless industry across the world will need to change. Somehow, I don't see that happening. Maybe a few can move and innovate quickly enough but most will wake up one day and wonder just where their steady and reliable billions in SMS profit went.

iMessage is both good for the wireless industry and great for mobile warriors regardless of whatever mobile platform your smartphone runs on.

Macs At About 15% In The US, A Stepping Stone For Apple's Mobile Strategy

By now, you know that Apple is doing quite well in some countries, more than the 3-4% of global sales that some firms like to publish. In fact, if you include iPad into the mix, as these same firms equate netbooks as regular laptops, Apple would be the largest PC maker in the world.

In fact, Apple has 15% of the OS market in the US.

But this charge here is a clear demonstration of just how far Apple has come in general and specifically, the Mac. That's right, this is about the Mac. And the Mac isn't going anywhere as many bloggers and tech pundits fear.

Now, not to rehash what you probably know through your day's browsing, but I want to focus just on how Apple can further make inroads into the psyche of the other mobile users. And let's face it, from now on, it's about laptops, tablets, and smartphones.

Actually, in Apple's case, it's Macbooks, iPads, and iPhones. (Oh, and let's not forget the iPod touches. However, the touches do not get the respect that they deserve but Apple owes a large part of its mobile success to the touches. I'll follow up on a post another time.)

And what's important to note is that Apple is well positioned in these three segments of the mobile market.

And further more, Apple has managed to achieve something that will give it an advantage that no other companies, including Google, Microsoft, RIM, or HP has been able to achieve. I'll give you one guess.

Nope. It's not the ecosystem or the iTunes although we know it is also something that no others have managed to duplicate. It is as if Apple has secret magical dust that it used to make all these pieces work.

That I am talking about is the general familiarity of the iOS that millions of users have with it. And With the release of Lion (the next Mac OS upgrade), Apple brought what it learn from the iOS and incorporate some features into Lion.

It's launchpad that works like the screen swiping n the iOs devices. It's also the four finger swipes to the left and right. It's also about the new Mac App store that iOS users will be familiar with.

Another example will be the directional scrolling on the Macs now conforms with the way it works on the iOS. Swipe up, and you move down the screen.

And over time, Apple will prove both the iOS and the OS X that includes additional features shared between the two.

You cannot say that about the Android, Blackberry OS, or Windows Phone 7. And if you're an iOS user who happens to have a Windows machine and the next time you upgrade, you probably would take a look or two at the Macbooks because you're already familiar with its operations. You've seen it before and you have experiences with it.

Furthermore, Apple will increasingly follow Google into the cloud. Admittedly, Apple has been late to the game. But I think it recognizes that as people take up more iPhones, iPads, and Macbooks, it has to offer a solution that allows users seamless access to files and media.

We can already guess where Apple is going with mobile computing. In the next couple of months, we will learn more about Apple's mobile plans further, maybe as soon as April when it traditionally shows the world what it has planned for the next iOS. And later this summer, we'll finally get Lion.

And for iOS or Mac fans, or if you're just a general Apple fan, 2011 is going to be about iPad 2 as Steve Jobs said. It's going to be a huge year for Apple's mobile vision.

More on Apple's OS marketshare at TUAW, Macdailynews.

iPhone K - K for Keyboard

I got a chance to play with the Blackberry Torch today. Not a bad device. Okay, I'm sure the e-mail part is as good as before but that's about all there is to say about it.

The new Blackberry OS is a welcoming upgrade but still hard to navigate. So the reviews have been more kind than they really are even though on the whole, reviews haven't been great. I think people didn't forget how long it took to get here and how far still it has to go.

Having said that, wouldn't it be something if Apple came out with an iPhone K, K for "keyboard" that has a similar form. Know this, this would blow the lid off the market. Millions upon millions of users will immediately quite Blackberry and switch over to the new iOS device.

Okay, okay, I know. Steve Jobs isn't too keen on this and we will never see an iPhone with physical keyboards. This is all about the vast investments in multi-touch that has actually worked out very well for Apple. Nevertheless, you cannot dismiss the millions of users who will never migrate over to the iPhone because their old-school bias against the lack of a physical keyboard.

Frankly, I can type very fast on the iPhone and I think in the long run, not having to exert any kind of physical force on those tiny keys will stave off any kind of joint problems I might develop.

But I just want to put out there about iPhone K. There is a market for it. But we'll never see an iPhone with a slide-out keyboard.

Apple Mobile: Game Changer? You Bet!

Right now, Apple accounts for 1/3 of all Wi-Fi use by one measurement and 25% of all music sold in the United States.

And to top it off, iTunes accounts for almost 70% of digital music sold.  69% To be exact.  That means other attempts by music labels and iTunes-wannabes (ahem, Amazon, ahem) has done nothing to change how much folks embrace Apple's mobile and music strategy.

I am certain that DRM-less change and the ability for iPhone and iPod Touch users to download music wirelessly helped.

But what's incredible how iTunes continues to dominate the market.  It makes me wonder just who are buying all these music from iTunes?  But I have to offer a cautionary note.  Music industry growth aside, there may come a time when digital growth may peak or slow.  That means don't expect to see 25% share that Apple currently enjoy is going go be 30% next year or the year after that.

A large percentage of the US music buying is still being done offline.  Meaning CDs.

Now, 1/3 of all Wi-Fi traffic are going through Apple's devices?  That's from 14% last year to 32% this year.  This is a seriously beig "wow".  And this isn't just coming from Apple.  Wireless devices from other companies are also doing well.  It's just that Apple is doing better than everyone else.

The information from Appleinsider is a bit confusing and short on details.  So we'll have to go to Meraki for the charts and details.

• Apple's Wi-Fi grew at 221%, nearly 68K devices from 21K
• Nearly 1/3 of Wi-Fi traffic is from Apple devices
• RIM devices grew 419% but merely 2% of all devices.  Though it seems to be a huge jump, it means hardly anyone was using their Blackberries to connect to the Internet.  This could be a troubling sign for RIM.
• What's worry for Nokia is it only grew 100%.  

Link:  Appleinsider

WWDC Thoughts

I've waited a whole day to weigh in on the announcements from the WWDC. I've made some notes but I'm not about to weigh in just yet.

For some reason, this is very different. This is a very different beast up at Cupertino. Maybe it's because there is no Steve. But it's more.

Just a few quick notes here:

• Phandroid wondered if the $99 iPhone 3G was an attempt to clear out the stock. No. It's not. I've wondered about that myself but this is Apple going for the kill. The iPhone is the one to beat. And here's what amazing about the competition (except maybe Android): they're trying to beat the iPhone with smartphones. Folks, the iPhone and iPod Touch are a part of mobile computing platform (iTablet will be too when it's finally released). The iPhone just happens to be a handheld computer that makes phone calls.

• Moving the 13" Macbooks up to the Pro league. It's been talked about as a mini Pro but who would have thought that Apple would give the unibody Macbooks the pro designation. Apple is gearing the Macbook Pros for the corporate market. Don't ever say that Apple doesn't have a corporate business plan. This is it.

• And speaking of the business plan from Apple, Snow Leopard (which I'll call SL) coming in at $29 when Microsoft will likely charge hundreds. Look for PC and Mac commercials driving this point home to users and businesses.

• SL with Exchange support - good biz plan even if you have to sleep with the enemy. Business is business. Now about the other optimization such as getting back 6GB of hard drive space after installing SL, multi-core CPU optimization, and using the GPL to help along with traditional computing tasks are just the thing that Apple can lay claim to its base and switchers.

• Price drops on the Apple portable lines. Maybe it's the economy but Apple has said that it will offer no umbrella room for which its competitors can compete. When that statement was made a few financial quarters ago, I thought Apple execs were only talking about the iPhone. They meant the Macs in the PC market as well.

• The refreshed iPhone 3G S and the current iPhone 3G along with the features from iPhone 3.0. Let's be honest. Apple has just caught up with the folks who think of themselves as iPhone competitors with features such as cut/copy/paste. Pre has it (beating Apple by a couple of weeks), Blackberries, WM devices, and Android has it. Now Apple has it. I can think of a few other features that Apple had been playing catch up but Apple has caught up in that sense. However, iPhone 3.0, multi-touch, 50K of apps in the store, the elegant hardware designs, prices really has these competitors in a bind. We'll get into how Apple has really put a hurt on the market and analyze its main competitors' technology, positions in the market, and how they can try to deal with the new iPhones. Seriously, does anyone see a 32GB competitor on the market?

So just a few thoughts. Please come back later tonight and the next few days after we've had a chance to catch our collective breathes and see where things stand with Apple's mobile offerings. One thought I want to leave you with before this post ends.

iPod Touch. What will Apple do to keep folks coming back to the Touch? How will Apple put even more distance between the Touch and the Zune HD that will certainly gain a lot of media and blog attention?

Note: This was a longer WWDC keynote than ones in the past or the Macworld keynotes. After the endless demos, I thought to myself "this is it. No new iPhone hardware announcement today".

Another Note: I like to think that Apple has continue its tradition of bring out hardware when it thinks it is ready. Obviously, the iPhone 3G S is ready for prime time but you have to wonder if the Pre has anything to do with this. Past iPhone releases took place at the end of June or early July. June 19th is less than two weeks ahead of schedule but still...I wonder...well, competition is good I suppose.

Third Note: Make your coffee or hot chocolate. Pull up the blanket (it's cold tonight, that's why) and enjoy the video of WWDC keynote 2009 courtesy of Apple.

iPhone At WWDC and Palm Pre

I'm a Palm fan. I've been using Palm PDAs since Palm III. Their best work was, I still believe that to be the case, is the Zire 72. However, I'm I bigger fan of Apple fan and I totally love my Apple gears. With that said, I'll gravitate towards whoever provide the best technology along with the best user experience at the end of the day.

With that said, I read an article in Silicon Alley Insider that speculated on whether we'll see the iPhone at the WWDC. Personally, I don't think that'll happen. I'm not even sure we'll hear about the iPhone 3.0. But one of the points they made in favor of the iPhone being shown off at the WWDC is the idea that Pre will be available around the same time as the developer conference and Apple will want to spoil the party.

Insider said "With the Palm Pre on the market as possible temptation, Apple will want to have its new iPhone out ASAP."

It's certainly a valid point. But it's not something Apple will do. I think what Apple may push the iPhone release into late June or July. Why is that? You're wonder if I'm saying Apple is afraid of a little competition.

Not at all. If anything, it shows Apple's confidence in its mobile platform. People with the first generation iPhones will see their contracts ending. Anyone who wants a new mobile device will want to see what Apple has in store while Pre may already be out on the market or is close to it.

By pushing back the launch, Apple puts a few weeks between Pre's release and iPhone's own debut. It freezes the market. And not just for Palm but Windows Mobile phones and Blackberries. More importantly, it freezes some segment of the Pre market.

What does it do? Well, we hear media reports of Palm limiting Pre availability just so that they can call the sellout a win. Three hundred and seventy five thousand units is the Pre figure what Wall Street is floating around. I doubt that's true. Come on, it's Wall Street. Given the "Pre-"hype, that's a pretty low number.

Imagine if Apple manages to make it so that Palm can't even sell out 375,000 Pre's. And all Apple has to do is do nothing. Maybe to spice things up, the Week, Pre is announced for sale or goes on sale, Apple will announce a special iPhone event a couple of weeks later.

What do you think? Palm is playing chess while Apple maybe playing go. Cupertino can win the war without firing even a shot.

Via: Alley Insider

Note: Apple is doing major house cleaning with the iPhones. Don't be surprised if Apple to ratchet up a notch or two until the new iPhones are out by lowering prices. Pre will have to go against lowered priced iPhones now and newer and more powerful iPhones later. Not an enviable position to be in. Remember what Jobs has said previously. No umbrella room for their competitors. Ouch.

Tracking Apple's Gaming Progress

There has been a plethora of articles and blogging posts (line continues to be blurred between the two) about Apple's iPhone platform and the inways its made in the mobile gaming market.

Personally, I think the final ruling is a bit further out.  Two or three years.  Still, there has been quite a bit of attention, including our own blogs (Onxo and here) about mobile gaming in general and how iPhones and iPod Touches can benefit as more mobile warriors use it beyond playing music, making calls, and surfing the Web.

I have to say that 90% of all my apps, both paid and free, are games.  They range from $1 and up.  And you know what?  During that time, I've not touched my other gaming gears.  And this isn't just coming from me.  Others have also noted this change. 

Perhaps it's time for me to make a declaration about Apple's gaming but honestly it really is too early to say.  Nintendo and Sony have yet to respond to the app store in any meaningful way.  And let's not forget that on the smartphone and mobile device markets, there are others like RIM, WM, and Android that can still come out of nowhere and make a meaningful move in the mobile gaming market (though not likely).

So, this is what we're gonna do.  We'll put together a list of articles on iPhone gaming as they come out.  We'll track them and see where we are with each article.  An iPhone gaming platform progress report that can give everyone an idea how Apple is faring in DS-PSP land. 

Here's the first one from NY Times.  "Electronic Playground" is what the Times is call Apple's mobile platform.  It's a must read as it details Apple's attempt at transforming mobile gaming and how DS and PSP is different from the iPhone.

The main issue the author has with the iPhone is very valid and one that I've been crying about to anyone who'll listen:  battery life.  Boy, crummy is crummy and the iPod Touch and iPhone really really short battery life.   

Interest in Mobile Computing Saved Apple's Christmas

Without Apple's redesigned unibody Macbooks (which I have and love) and the refreshed iPod Touches, and certainly the iMacs were no help, Apple stock price could have end up much lower.  The record quarter revenue and profit did stunt any effort from Jobs not being at the helm, at least until June.

But with Macbooks selling really hot, let's not forget the iPod Touch.  the iPhone had a great quarter but nothing like the 7 million sold in the previous quarter.  So, let's focus on the iPods.

It's unfortunate that Apple doesn't break out individual numbers for the different iPods but I'm willing to believe that the second generation iPod Touch did a lot to exceed analyst expectations (from Wall Street to Internet bloggers/analysts). 

I got the 2nd gen 8GB iPod Touch and it's just absolutely incredible.  I have the iPhone as well and this design is just incredible.  More than just the design, it's what it represents.  It's a mobile computing platform.

A mobile computer.  A gaming machine.  A lot of people think that iTunes is why the iPods are selling so well and I agree.  But it's these new functions that makes iPod Touches stand out.

• 36 Hours of play time - I'm getting around that much.  In fact, I think I'm getting closer to forty hours.
  
• I'm getting 6-7 hours of Internet use.  8 hours of just writing.  Gaming varies depending on how graphic intensive the games are.  Generally, great battery life.  I don't watch video on it like I do on my iPhone because I have more room on my iPhone (16GB).
• Mobile Internet.  E-mails. 
  
• I love the touchscreen keyboard.  No doubt about it.  I never got used to the physical keyboards on the Blackberries and I'm only getting used to the one on my G1.  
• $199.  Cheaper with some online oulets.  Even cheaper with refub units from Apple.  
• Don't have to deal with a wireless contract.

I'm sure a lot of mobile readers who own an iPod Touch have other great features they love about their iPod Touch but the above features comes to mind.   Again, Apple doesn't have numbers for us but I'm sure the 8GB iPod Touch model was very popular this Christmas.

What does this mean?  Well, no new iMac or Mac mini and Apple still had a great quarter.  I'm thinking a change on how we do computing and expectations as far as mobile entertainment comes to mind.  As a society, we're increasing wireless affording us greater freedom from our home or office.  Macbooks aside, Apple has introduced a great mobile device in the form of the Touch.

The iPod Touch doesn't do spreadsheets or many other office functions but it does allow for mobile warriors to take data, e-mail, and perform simple word processing.  Kids can do some homework on the go or where there is Wi-Fi, go onto the Internet. Again, gaming.

I think the impact of devices like the iPod Touch is only beginning to be felt.  There simply is no other device like this.  I know there are devices like the Nokia N800 series but nothing as integrated a far as computing functions and entertainment values as the iPod Touch.

Personally, I can wait until the third generation and updated software features.  

Note:  Microsoft did not have a great quarter.  In fact, Zune revenue was down $100 million.  I've only seen Zune in the wild like twice.  But I hope Microsoft doesn't exit the market because even if Zune does sell as well as the iPods, it's a competitor to the iPods and competition, everyone knows, is good for innovation and, ultimately, consumers.

Office on iPhone

You can do it on Windows Mobile, Palm, and Blackberries.  What is it?

Edit Office docs.  I'm a bit torn on this issue.  There are certainly limitations to working with documents on a small mobile device.  I've tried it before, and perhaps I should have given it more of an effort, it was not really my cup of tea.

However, of all the Office applications I want the most has to be Word or Page.  I've sent megabtyes upon megabtyes of text already.  I can see myself sending more be it attachment or something else.

Editing spreadsheets?  Not so much.  I've used DocumentsToGo to create workout schedules and expense trackers but nothing really elaborate.  And in the end, I hardly used either.  But that has nothing to do with the spreadsheet app but more with my routine.

I don't even want to get into a Powerpoint-like app.  I find the need for a presentation app rather than one that allows editing.

Like to hear what you think about this issue and what your experiences has been.

Blackberry rocks! But...

RIM sold 5.4 million phones.  Valued at $2.1 billion.  Their best quarter.  This comes out to $389 per handset.  That's very good.

But Apple sold 6.9 million iPhones valuing at $4.6 billion.  I'll let you do the math...no wonder RIM is getting killed.  As good as the Storm is, Blackberries have not been able to hold serve since the iPhone 3G came out.  

One more thing...Apple stock was about to tank when the guidance looked bad but then Jobs show up during the financial call and stock jumped 10%...ended the extended session up 13%.  

Look at the analysts who commented on the iPhone  before it came out.

Also of note for Apple fans:

• Wired reported the Android Marketplace, which I found virtually abandoned yesteryday and today, should be stock up with 50 apps by tomorrow.  the iTunes app store came ready with 500 at launch.   
• The iPhone app store has ballooned 11X from when it debuted back in June.  Stands at 5,500 apps.
• The 200 millionth app will be downloaded by tomorrow.
  

I guess I'll hold off purchasing Solar Baster until tomorrow.  Maybe I'll just get to be the lucky 200 millionth served.

Does Apple Have to Worry About the Coming "Storm"?

Hardly.  Technologically, the iPhone is still the only game changer in town.  But I'm very glad Blackberry, finally somebody, sought to challenge what no one else has done since the iPho came out about 15 months ago.

This is why Apple does not have to worry.  Storm, with all its wonders, is missing a lot of things the iPhone has.  And some of these things are not likely to come to the Storm if ever.

• No Wi-Fi.  Seriously?
• 1GB - in this day and age?  This is the same complaint I have got with the G1.  (15 more days till I get it!)
• It's bulky.  It's something some executive or manager might like but the bulk of the consumer will still prefer the sleek form factor.
• Ease of use is still something Apple dominates.
• Mind set.  Teenagers, college students still identify with the iPod.  That is translating into iPhone.  
• Innovation.  Innovation.  Innovation.  Apple is the only company today to change the landscape of the mobile market while everyone is still trying to figure out what is going on.

Technically, the iPhone as a package is difficult to beat.  Storm does a good job at coming in second.  Not a close second.  Given the business features that is innate in Blackberry smartphones, RIM has something that allows it to hold serve.  

As a consumer devices go, a good analogy is the old IBM versus Apple of the 80s.  Think of Blackberries as IBM and the iPhone...well, it's still Apple.  But this time, the corporate assault Apple is mounting on Blackberry's turf is more evident.  

Verizon is not going to see defection to Storm the way ATT has seen new subscribers coming from its competitors because of the iPhone, particular at the expense of Verizon.  But Storm is just what Verizon needs to keep people from leaving.

Another issue may be pricing.  Given how bulked up Storm is with the latest and greatest tech from RIM, one would assume it's going cost a bit.  We'll find out soon enough.  RIM, Verizon, and other partners seem to be very hush-hush about this.  If I had to guess, they will try to under cut the iPhone.  

Why?  Because they have to.  Because people want the iPhone.  You don't think people will gobble up the iPhone if it was made available on Verizon's network?  $150 seems about right.  But if they really want to hurt Apple, they need to make it free.  

It's the only want for RIM and Verizon to change the dynamics of this mobile arms race.

Note:  Apple has warned about margins in the last financial report.  Rim did the same because they higher costs due to launching new products.  RIM has only Blackberries.  As great as Storm is in my opinion, failure is not an option for RIM.  

Impact:  Look for Apple to counter regardless of what RIM does or how they price Storm.  

Verizon Readies Troops For War on Apple

One thing in politics is you want to focus on your message and you want to avoid mentioning your opponent, right?  That's before the mudslinging got to where it is today.

Well, Verizon will be doing the latter when they launch their counteroffensive on the iPhone 3G with the Blackberry Storm.  Crackberry has some notes and a video on Verizon indoctrinating their troops when it comes to Storm versus the iPhone.

Never mind that the Storm is a phone with limited computing capabilities while the iPhone and iPod Touch is a true mobile platform built from the ground up.  So, the comparison isn't apple to Apple but some-kind-of-a-berry to Apple.

Ask yourself this.  Of the two, which are we like to see mobile devices being born out of the underlying technology?  One thing is for sure, we're likely to see an Apple mobile device with additional mutli-touch functionalities before we seen something like that from anyone else, let alone RIM.

And truly, what does Verizon say about their other mobile devices that were not given this kind of campaign when it comes to competing with the iPhone?  What did Sprint say about their other lineups when Instinct is the only phone they think is worthy of comparison to the iPhone?

I'm sure the Blackberry Storm is a spectacular device and Verizon could be using it to avoid potential erosion of its customer base.  But if it does not measure up in reviews and sales, the Blackberry brand could be damaged greatly.

After Storm debuts, the likely scenario is that Verizon and ATT will continue to take additional subscribers from Sprint and possibly T-Mobile if its flagship Android phone does not pan out.  And in the end, things will be more difficult for Verizon if potential customers don't like Storm but is now aware of the iPhone because of their constant comparisons.  After all, how can Verizon say to their customers "if you don't like the best we've got, we've got these lesser smartphones you might like.  How about the Blackberry Curve for you"?

One more thing.  Price.  Whatever the price comparisons are, it's not the same unless Strom has 8GB or 16GB built in.  1GB with a micro SD card slot that supports up to 16GB is not the same as an iPhone 3G with 16GB.  I can't believe how many people forget about storage when doing price comparisons.