Friday, October 30, 2009

Internet News: Why No iPhone for Verizon and T-Mobile USA Should Get the iPhone in 2010

Verizon Wireless has said time and time again that the ball is in Apple court as to whether the iPhone will make it onto VW's network.  Well, if the Droid campaign is of any indication, the answer is that the VW customers will not see a CDMA or LTE iPhone for a long long time.

Well, Internet News has a very good down-the-middle post about why the iPhone will stay with ATT for a while and it's a must read. 

Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg recently said that despite the Droid campaign (only some parts of it were good-natured fun against the iPhone), VW is ready to embrace Apple as a partner.  One thing everyone can agree on:  whether the Verizon gets the iPhone is entirely Apple's decision.

And IN mapped out clearly why that's not going to happen in the near future.  here are a few reasons why:
  • Not until LTE network is completed or near completion.  That won't happen until 2013.
  • Details on the deal between ATT and Apple remain obscured.  Some folks say 5 years.  Don't put any stock in that.  No one knows except Apple and ATT.  
  • Apple has trashed CDMA and until VW provides a viable alternative, no go.
  • Apple is looking at war and doesn't care about individual near-term battles or profits.  Recently analysis has it that Android will overtake the iPhone in the market.  While I don't dispute the conclusion, Apple would beg to differ.  It looks 5 or 10 years down the road.  Selling a few million CDMA iPhones doesn't fit into Apple's design and outlook philosophy.
  • LTE seems to be the "it" network in the US but WiMax isn't going away either.  There are more WiMax networks in the world than LTE at this time.  Still, Apple can afford to take a wait-and-see attitude with respect to the iPhone on VW's LTE network.
Looks pessimistic for Verizon customers, right?  Yeah, it does.  Still, VW is spending billions to beef up its 4G network.  If VW can cut down the time it takes to create a national LTE network, Apple might be convinced to let Verizon be its next US partner.  

Having said all that, I'm going to bring up something which I'm alone in indicating in the past.  We're likely to see the iPhone with T-Mobile before we ever see it on VW.  And it's not like I woke up one day and realized it.  Okay, maybe it was just after my third cup of coffee but I was coherent when I put together my reasonings.

It was always about 3G and GSM and how Apple can easily make it happen..  But there's another reason for it now.  Google and Android 2.0.  With Droid, Google and Motorola has made Android an even more viable alternative than Palm and Sprint did with the Pre.  

Already, Android devices have invaded all of the four major wireless providers in the US while the iPhone sits on just one.  By bring aboard T-Mobile in early 2010, Apple can combat any momentum Android has built.  

Plus, any deal with T-Mobile would have been negotiated at least a year ago.  That fits the type of deals Apple created with other carriers in Canada and Britain where the iPhone is available with more than one carrier.  

So, no iPhone for VW but don't be surprise if T-Mobile starts selling even just the 3G and maybe the 3GS models in early 2010.  No announcements is likely to be made to protect the Holiday sales if there is such a deal.  

More at Internet News.

Note:  Keep in mind that Jobs has a long memory.  Legend has it that VW spurned Apple when it approach them about the iPhone.  Given how Apple's doing now with ATT and sales relying on international growth, Apple isn't in a hurry to make VW competitive against ATT.

Another note:  The stuff about T-Mobile is just my prediction and analysis.  Nothing more.  Not rumors and stuff.  All me.  

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