Friday, January 29, 2010

Sane Explanation Of Why NO Verizon iPhone or iPad For A While

In the days leading up to the iPad announcement, speculations were hot and sweaty about what the iPad can do and who Apple will partner with for the iPad's 3G data needs.

Well, I'll be honest. I want to see an iPhone on Verizon's supposedly wireless network for two reasons. First, I'm a believe in Apple's mobile devices and strategy. No, 100% but close. Second, I want to know once and for all just what the impact of the weight of tens of millions of iPhone users on VW's vast 3G network.

But alas, that will not come to pass. In fact, I still firmly believe T-Mobile will see some Apple love before anyone else. That being said, AllThingD has a good post about why VW will not see an iPhone for a while and probably not until the next generation LTE network has sufficiently covered a majority of the US market.

Here's why:
  • Money, money, money.  ATT is will to play.
  • ATT's network might be more robust in the coming year.  And with 3G improvements in terms of speed and reliability, Apple will have less reason to be looking at Verizon's aging CDMA network.
  • Apple is willing to wait for the LTE network to come online.
  • Cook is a believer in ATT's network roadmap.  He said so himself.
  • ATT is looking for a fight. Just look at the commercials.  A and A have taken their gloves off.  
One thing I don't see anyone point out about a CDMA iPhone that has been in the commercials.  How can an iPhone on a CDMA network miraculously make calls and surf the Web at the same time when all the other devices cannot?  It would go contrary to the marketing message, right?

However, I do believe a CDMA iPad is possible provided that VW is will to pay.

Note:  Aside from the fact that T-Mobile USA also runs a GSM network and will be running on their 3G network for a while.  A long long while since they're still expanding it.  Keep in mind that Steve Jobs has a long memory.  He's probably not happy with VW executives who spurned him when he approached them with the iPhone.  He's likely to go with Sprint before he does a VW deal.  Ask Eisner how his fight with Steve Jobs went and you'll know what kind of grudge the Apple founder can hold.

More at ATD.

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