Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Tens Of Millions of iPHone 4 To be Sold - What Does It Really Mean? More than 10 Million? 20 or 30 Million?

On Monday's WWDC keynote given by Steve Jobs, he promised iPhone 4 users will have a lot of folks to talk to using FaceTime because he promised Apple will sell tens of millions of iPhone 4.

Based on past quarter experiences, it's not a lofty goal but it's the manner in which he said it.  So how many iPhone 4 can Apple sell?

I am calling this now.  No FaceTime for the new iPod Touch that will come out this fall.  We might see a camera but that's about it.  We aren't likely to even see a 5MP camera like iPhone 4 but just the currently one on the iPhone 3GS.  That will be about it.  

2010 Will be about Apple selling iPhone 4 and trying to dominate the mobile market.  For Apple to sell 20 million iPhones for the rest of second half of 2010 would be a walk in the park  How about 25 million?  30 Million?

We'll have to see just how popular features like FaceTime is and whether it will take off given the artificial limitation placed on it by carriers.  FaceTime can only be used WiFi.  And this will be entirely an iPhone-to-iPhone affair.  Previously, I had hoped the feature can be extended to other iOS devices (since they don't have a frontal camera yet, they can at least participate in viewing the video).

If FaceTime really takes off, families will be looking into buying more than one iPhone 4.  Plus, I can see aunts, uncles, and, especially, grandparents who want to use FaceTime to keep in touch with their grandchildren.  You can bet that I'm going to make sure my brother's next phone be an iPhone.

I'm not here to talk about marketshares but more about the experience of using Apple's mobile gear, iPhone 4.  Be ready for Apple to flood the airwaves with FaceTime.  Plus, Apple is rolling out the iPhone 4 rather quickly this time.  By September, Apple will be selling the iPhone in 88 countries.  

I think twenty-five million iPhones is doable.  Thirty million iPhones might be a stretch.  However, from Steve Jobs' tone of voice at the WWDC, it sounds like Apple plan on blowing away any kind of estimates Wall Street can throw at it.

By the end of 2010, we can be in the midst of another social change in mobile computing and communication.  And once again, it is Apple leading the charge.

Note: Qik, Fring, And Skype are three apps that quickly comes to mind that offers (or plans to) video chat.  Ease of use will be the key differentiator for FaceTime.  With FaceTime, there are no cumbersome steps of setting up accounts.  Yeah, Apple made it that easy to use.

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