Thursday, August 4, 2011

Would A Double Dip Recession Be A Good Thing For Mobile?

Consider how well certain companies did in the last recession, it's possible that should we enter a second recession in the US, it may well mean that companies that are ready for it could do well and even better once economies around the world start to grow again.

In the last recession, Apple promised to innovate its way out and it certainly did.  Macs continued to outpace PC sales even to this day.  Out of the recession came the iPhone 4 and the iPad.  Trust me when I tell you that Apple may be up for another recession.  It's international growth engine continue to hit on all of its cylinders.  

Certainly Google with its massive search lead could also weather any recession nicely.  It still has to contend with the Android lawsuits that its partners are facing and that uncertainty should only be a blip if that at all.

Microsoft's Office and Windows empire might take a hit.  At the same time, the next Windows Phone update, Mango, is just about to reach the market with Nokia spearheading the charge.  And Windows 8 for ARM-based chips will also be coming our way soon.  I see them in a similar position as Apple.

No one wants a recession.  But these guys may be among the few that will not only weather it but also thrive.  And depending on how long the second recession lasts, they could emerge in much stronger positions than ever.  While I hardly consider RIM and HP second tier players in the mobile market, they will need to be surgical about how they muddle through the recession.  

In market that will be particularly important is China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan).  A recession for China means a couple of percentage off its growth.  And there is no reason to believe that China will go into a recession even if we do here in the West.  Apple is particularly well positioned among the mobile giants.  Those who can afford iPhones and Macs will continue to eat them up.  Those in China who can afford $5 latte are not going to be too concerned about what happens on Main Street and Wall Street, USA.

Google is seeing its fortune shrink in China and Microsoft could use its position as a global tech leader to make inroads just when its competitors might be handicapped for political (like Google) or financial reasons.  

As for Google, Android can take even a greater share of the mobile market on the low end.  To Google, it doesn't matter if Android devices are selling for $50 or $300.  As long as it is able to sell ads, it will continue to doing very well.  

So, who else in the mobile warr do you think could do well or will falter through a second recession?  

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