Apple Could Possibly Sell 30 Million iPhones In Holidays Quarter - Of Course

Obviously, Apple's iPhone is doing very very well.  Apple is now officially the biggest smartphone maker in the world coming in at 19% (WSJ).  Apple basically leapfrogged the former leader, Nokia which still managed to ship 15.7%.

So when one analyst estimated that Apple may reach 30 million iPhones for this Christmas quarter, one has wonder if it's possible.  

In the latest quarter, Apple managed to sell more than twenty million iPhones without a new model on the market.  It's like that there was a lot of pinned up demand for the new iPhone.  

New iPhone and Christmas - a very potent combination.  On top of that, Apple will have Verizon Wireless' 90 million+ customers that could be waiting to get their hands on one.  Also, Apple might bring the iPhone to a third carrier in the US, Sprint.  Maybe even T-Mobile USA.

On top of that, with China being such an important market to Apple now, and Apple could bring the iPhone to Greater China sooner rather than later with future release.  If Apple does release the new iPhone this September, there is plenty of time for Apple to also let some loose in China.

The only issue I see here that might prevent Apple from getting to 30 million iPhones this year is if its suppliers cannot ramp up fast enough.  Seriously, consider this.  30 million iPhones in 92 or so days.  The build-up will have to be quite significant to start for the US market to satisfy the demand and still have millions left for China.

Also consider this.  Thirty million this fourth quarter but that is thinking small.  Apple's 19% of the smartphone market is about 106 million iPhones.  That's kinda smallish compared to the whole handset market.  With each passing quarter, more and more people are letting go of their regular handset and moving onto a smartphone.

Apple has already indicated it will address the low-end of the mobile market.  So the question isn't if but when Apple addresses it.  With around 1.5 billion handsets sold this year and let's assume that one day everyone uses only smartphones, 30 million iPhones is going to look pretty ridiculous.  

If Apple manages to maintain between 25-30% of the total mobile market, that's 375 to 450 million iPhones.  Of course, that also means that if Android does somehow survive the Great Patent Wars of 2011-2012, Google's Open Handset Alliance will take 750 million handsets.  

What?  I like numbers...

Note:  Just in case you're wondering, Samsung has also leaped past Nokia, coming in at 16.2% of the smartphone market.  

Another Note:  Nokia is bidding its time until its Mango smartphones hit the market later this year.  Even wondering through the forest aimlessly, Nokia has more than 15% of the smartphone market.  You don't want to come them out.

Starbucks Could Be Less Friendly To Mobile Warriors - At Least In NY

It looks like the days when mobile warriors who park themselves at Starbucks for a couple of hours are no longer welcomed.  At least, that is the case in New York.  How about you?  Do you have the same experience at your local Starbucks outside of NY?

I don't see that happening at the local stores around me.  However, a local Borders store, before getting closed down a few months back, blocked off the outlets.  And let's just say that it did not improve the traffic into the bookstore. 

As mentioned in the Yahoo post where I read this, I doubt there is an official Starbucks policy.  And WSJ was able to obtain a statement to this effect.  I think they're going to take a way and see policy and gauge the traffic.  I reckon these locations in NY probably have a very high foot traffic.  And even if the "laptop loungers" end up going elsewhere to do their mobile stuff, there are probably more than enough traffic to replace them.

Again, locally, it's not going to be a big deal for me.  I am within walking distance of two Starbucks (six stores that is within biking distance).  There are busy times but for the most part, it's hardly at capacity for more than an hour or so at a time.  And at a Starbucks on Colorado Blvd near Pasadena City College, the store looks like it was built to cater to loungers and students.

Furthermore, while I have railed about battery life in today's mobile devices, keeping  someone with a Dell laptop from charging up might move him along after a couple of hours.  But if the user has a Macbook with 8-10 hours of battery life or a tablet like the iPad or a Xoom (10 hours), plugging up the outlets will not do anything.  They probably won't nice.

Source: Starbucks Gossip via Yahoo.

Evernote And Springpad: Both Online Notebook Services Rock; Mobile Giants Should Buy Them Out And Integrate Their Services

You know what I'm going to do if I win the lottery tomorrow?  I'll put some of that money and invest in Evernote and/or Springpad. Both are cloud-based services that allow you to sync your life - they are indesensible tools for today's mobile warriors.  Basically, a not so full-sized version of Google's webapps and certainly something that I would like to see Apple move iCloud towards. 

Both are cloud-based note-taking services that allow the user a lot of freedom move notes around, sync them, and are easily accessible on the Web or apps.  

And yes, I use both services and swear by them. And they sit squarely on the bottom doc of my iPhone and on the center home page of my Triumph. 

I use Evernote every day. I write posts and notes and sync them.  When when I'm at Starbucks, I can access the notes from my iPad or phone (or my Macbook Air)  And I can't go back to anything else because there isn't anything else like this. There simply is no webapp with desktop and cloud integration like this.   

The same thing goes for Springpad as well.  And I really like Springpad because it allows me to scan products wherever I go, find it online or locally through the barcode.  

Here's a very detailed comparison between the two services by Computerworld.  It's a recommended read if you're not familiar with the two services and want to learn more about them. Not too complicated to understand.  I'll also include their homepages and wiki links so you can check them out.  Like the author of the article, I cannot pick a winner at the moment.  I'm loving both.  

There are also premium services for Evernote you can pay for if you need more bandwidth for syncing or storage.  I don't need them right now but as my needs grow, I probably will have to shell out the money for the premium services.  And when that time comes, I'll happily do it.  

And as I've said in the title of the post, why are these two companies allowed to freely roam the cloud without something buying them up.  Naturally, Google and Microsoft both have their own services but Apple doesn't.  And I see Facebook can use something like Springpad nicely.  

Or anyone with a play in mobile and want to be able to participate in the mobile and cloud spaces.  

More info:

• Evernote
• Springpad
• Wiki Evernote
• Wiki Springpad
• Wiki page that compares all the cloud and app based notebook services 

Note:  I'll get into some neat uses that I've seen around the Web that uses both of these services. 

Apple Moves To Shut Down Fake Stores

Looks like Apple legal will have a new target:  Fake stores.

According to CNET, some of the targets are also in the US.  That's right.  The US!  Fushing, New York!  Then again, isn't NY like the capital of fake stuff in the US?

I don't know just how anyone think they can get away with it  Honestly, if you can't fake Apple gears, you might as well fake the stores to sell real Apple gears.  That's as far as you'll get.

Would A Double Dip Recession Be A Good Thing For Mobile?

Consider how well certain companies did in the last recession, it's possible that should we enter a second recession in the US, it may well mean that companies that are ready for it could do well and even better once economies around the world start to grow again.

In the last recession, Apple promised to innovate its way out and it certainly did.  Macs continued to outpace PC sales even to this day.  Out of the recession came the iPhone 4 and the iPad.  Trust me when I tell you that Apple may be up for another recession.  It's international growth engine continue to hit on all of its cylinders.  

Certainly Google with its massive search lead could also weather any recession nicely.  It still has to contend with the Android lawsuits that its partners are facing and that uncertainty should only be a blip if that at all.

Microsoft's Office and Windows empire might take a hit.  At the same time, the next Windows Phone update, Mango, is just about to reach the market with Nokia spearheading the charge.  And Windows 8 for ARM-based chips will also be coming our way soon.  I see them in a similar position as Apple.

No one wants a recession.  But these guys may be among the few that will not only weather it but also thrive.  And depending on how long the second recession lasts, they could emerge in much stronger positions than ever.  While I hardly consider RIM and HP second tier players in the mobile market, they will need to be surgical about how they muddle through the recession.  

In market that will be particularly important is China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan).  A recession for China means a couple of percentage off its growth.  And there is no reason to believe that China will go into a recession even if we do here in the West.  Apple is particularly well positioned among the mobile giants.  Those who can afford iPhones and Macs will continue to eat them up.  Those in China who can afford $5 latte are not going to be too concerned about what happens on Main Street and Wall Street, USA.

Google is seeing its fortune shrink in China and Microsoft could use its position as a global tech leader to make inroads just when its competitors might be handicapped for political (like Google) or financial reasons.  

As for Google, Android can take even a greater share of the mobile market on the low end.  To Google, it doesn't matter if Android devices are selling for $50 or $300.  As long as it is able to sell ads, it will continue to doing very well.  

So, who else in the mobile warr do you think could do well or will falter through a second recession?  

Can You Fault Someone For Protecting His/Her Intellectual Property? Further Apple Innovation Will Put More Distance Between It and Competitors

Apple's patents are about putting some distance between itself and its competitors.  Apple's products carry with it's the DNA of the original Mac philosophy of "just works", ease of use, and elegance in its designs.  

What anyone else does about their own designs and functions matters very little to Apple as long as they do not infringe too much on Apple's work.  And more than just Android being a threat in the market, Apple felt that Android's dominance happened because a competitor like Samsung came in and copied not only key functions but also how it looks and feels.

And while I don't agree with Apple 100% on this issue, you cannot help but feel that there are similarities between the iPhone 3G and 3GS with the Galaxy phones.  

You also have to ask where would Apple's competitors go if they did not help themselves to some features like multi-touch?  I am not excusing their behaviors but only to point out that their recourse would be to reinvent the wheel so to speak or to invalidate Apple's patents.  

No matter how Google rants or talk about patent reforms, one thing that will no change is this.  There is a reason the concept of patents exist.  It's to protect the inventor's intellectual property.

And judging by the lack of innovation coming out of Apple's competitors, I see Apple distancing its iOS devices from competing products even more.  The only way to end is thing is not play by Apple rules.  Innovate and change the game entirely.

Auto-Correction Like iPhone Available For Macs Running Lion; Could Make Us Worse At Spelling

In pre-Lion, any version of OS X, there was no auto-correction and when we got that in iOS, I had wanted to have that be made available natively to the Macs for years.  And with the arrival of Lion, that feature has come.  At first, I had not noticed.

It was only when I read Macworld's post on turning it off that I realized it was there.  

For instance, I typed in "this is noly a test".  In the past, my Macbook would have left it there until I make a correctly.  Now, this is what I see "this is only a test".

So, why would anyone want to turn it off?  I understand the issue that the feature might insert the wrong word from time to time but I see that more likely to happen on the iPhone more than on the Mac.  

I might consider turning this feature off for only one reason:  if my spelling gets worse.  Seriously, I have already seen my spelling worsen in the last couple of years.  In the past, I would attempt to be more careful spelling out a word or at least attempt to sound out words that I don't know or hardly use.  These days, I just muddle through it and do a spell check after the fact.

With the auto-spelling correction feature, I won't even have to do that.  However, I may have to reread the doc more carefully to make sure the auto-correction inserted the right word.

I know this much.  Had this feature been available to me in elementary school, there was no way I'd be considered for a spelling bee contest.