Thursday, October 20, 2011

My Own Earnings Prediction For Apple's 1Q 2012 (Oct-Dec)

Earlier, I said would come up with my own estimates for Apple's current quarter earnings.  The reason I am doing this is because I want to prove just good or bad my numbers compared to the overpaid Wall Street guys who have been so clueless about what makes Apple tick - they've miss massively by underestimating Apple.  But what's different about this past quarter is that they got ahead of themselves and ended up punishing Apple for it.

By the way, you know that guy who stuck with his prediction that we'll seen an iPhone 5 just a day before Tim Cook and company denied him? I focused on this dude because not only was he so boldly wrong, he came back the following week to make more predictions about Apple bringing a smaller iPad to compete with the Kindle Fire. His name, Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities, was off and historically, far worse than his peers.

Before, I give my numbers, let's examine White's.

  • Apple earned $28.3 billion - White went with $30.78B
  • Apple sold 17.1M iPhones. White went with 21.97M iPhones
  • Apple sold 6.6M iPods. White went with  7.16M iPods
  • Apple sold 11.1M iPads. White went with 15.56M iPads
  • Apple sold 4.9M Macs. White went with 4.24M Macs.
Dude did not come close in any category.  I don't know where the dude gets is earnings estimates from but I know this.  My numbers cannot be worse than his.

For next quarter, Apple said they'll make $37 billion, and that was above Wall Street estimates. And since I'm new at this, you'll have to allow me a small range to start.  I'm going with:
  • Apple to earn between $41.4 to $42.5 billion
  • Apple to sell 30.4 to 34.8 million iPhones.
  • Apple to sell 14.5 to 15 million iPads.
  • Apple to sell 5.2 million Macs.
  • Apple to sell 15 million iPods.
So, keep those numbers hand and we'll see just how my numbers (figuratively pulled out of my "you know") are compared to these "professionals".  For the record, White thinks Apple will only come in with $37.9 billion.

Note:  As for the smaller form factor iPad - I've been advocating this for a better part of a year.  And so have many others.  So if and when Apple does come out with a sub-10" iPad, I'll mentioned that White was in the right.  Of course, it's like they said - a broken clock is right twice a day.

Another Note:  I reserve the right to play with my predictions as news becomes available, just like the analysts do.  In particular, we don't know when China will get the iPhone 4S yet.  China is Apple second most important market.

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