Friday, October 21, 2011

Remember How I Said Wall Street Is Nuts, UBS Has Not Learn A Thing

UBS's Apple analyst is reporting that Apple will sell 42.5 million iPhones in the current quarter.  Yesterday, my sub-amateurish attempt to predict that Apple will do has me believing Apple will sell between about 30.5 to 34.5 million iPhones through the Holidays quarter.

How did UBS come to their insane 42.5 million iPhones?  Well, you can go to Barron's to check it out but I would not waste my time.  He basically made a bunch of assumptions that really has no basis.  UBS's current iPhone figure is 28 million.  They are say based on ratio of US and international sales and US carriers reporting users waiting to upgrade their iPhones, Apple will have a 14.5 million iPhone sales upside to their current figure.

If all other things stay the same and let's enter this fairyland and assume UBS is right, it would mean that Apple would have nearly $49 billion in revenue this quarter - about a 32% increase above their $37 billion guidance.

You know what that sounds like? It's sounds like the kind of Wall Street expectations in the just ended quarter where analysts go way ahead of themselves.  Apparently, they haven't learned a thing.  Boy, these guys have very very short memories.

I'm gonna put this dumb-dumb's name out there.  It's Maynard Um of UBS.  Last quarter, he thought Apple would come in 20% above their guidance at $30 billion (Apple beat guidance by 13% with $28.3 billion).  So now, Um is saying Apple will beat their $37 billion guidance for this Holidays quarter by 32%.

Sorry, as much as I like to believe that, reality doesn't work this way.  Apple may well be able to sell more than forty million iPhones in a quarter, but I doubt its this quarter.

Source:  WSJ Barron's (inching closer to be the new Digitimes of the West - and it's not a compliment).

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