Remember How I Said Wall Street Is Nuts, UBS Has Not Learn A Thing

UBS's Apple analyst is reporting that Apple will sell 42.5 million iPhones in the current quarter.  Yesterday, my sub-amateurish attempt to predict that Apple will do has me believing Apple will sell between about 30.5 to 34.5 million iPhones through the Holidays quarter.

How did UBS come to their insane 42.5 million iPhones?  Well, you can go to Barron's to check it out but I would not waste my time.  He basically made a bunch of assumptions that really has no basis.  UBS's current iPhone figure is 28 million.  They are say based on ratio of US and international sales and US carriers reporting users waiting to upgrade their iPhones, Apple will have a 14.5 million iPhone sales upside to their current figure.

If all other things stay the same and let's enter this fairyland and assume UBS is right, it would mean that Apple would have nearly $49 billion in revenue this quarter - about a 32% increase above their $37 billion guidance.

You know what that sounds like? It's sounds like the kind of Wall Street expectations in the just ended quarter where analysts go way ahead of themselves.  Apparently, they haven't learned a thing.  Boy, these guys have very very short memories.

I'm gonna put this dumb-dumb's name out there.  It's Maynard Um of UBS.  Last quarter, he thought Apple would come in 20% above their guidance at $30 billion (Apple beat guidance by 13% with $28.3 billion).  So now, Um is saying Apple will beat their $37 billion guidance for this Holidays quarter by 32%.

Sorry, as much as I like to believe that, reality doesn't work this way.  Apple may well be able to sell more than forty million iPhones in a quarter, but I doubt its this quarter.

Source:  WSJ Barron's (inching closer to be the new Digitimes of the West - and it's not a compliment).

Tablet: What I want From Quad-Core Tablets - Split Screens

Transformer 2 from Asus, when it comes out in November, will be the world's first quad-core device - by that, I mean a tablet that has double the core of the current crop of tablets including the iPad 2, Galaxy Tab 10.1, Xoom, and others.  So, I ask you this.  What exactly do you do with all that processing power that you cannot already do on the tablets today?

iOS 5: If Not Siri, Apple Should Give Other iOS Users Dictation

Siri is has the potential to give Apple and edge in the next computing evolution, revolution if done correctly, but Apple has to move quickly.  I mean it has to maintain the lead the the iPhone gave it in 2007 when the rest of the wireless industry was caught flat-footed.

And if what the wireless chiefs at Google and Microsoft said about smartphones not being good digital assistants, I've got a word or two for them:  the mobile revolution we're currently in started with personal digital assistants, you know, PDAs.

But back to voice.  Google has a healthy if not overtly static set of commands.  For the last few years, Apple was way behind in those efforts.  With Siri, Apple has shown just how serious it was about not only voice but creating a working and  helpful assistant that gives mobile warriors a new way to interact with their mobile devices.

Others in the industry will mistaken that with voice commands.  It's evident in the dismissive attitudes that Apple's competitors have demonstrated so far.

And yes, Siri is still in beta but if Apple really want Siri to take off, let the rest of the iOS devices at least gain the ability to speak at their devices - let people dictate messages.  Feel comfortable speak to their iPhones, iPod touches, or iPads and not just at them.

I personally do not see why Siri works only on the iPhone 4S and if its a ploy for Apple to get users to upgrade to it, I accept and respect. But it does need to know that it needs to move quickly and blow everyone else away.

Free iPhone 3GS Could Be AT&T's Savior and Secret Weapon - Even They Were Surprised

The iPhone 3GS is more than two years old.  And yet, it continues to wreck havoc on the mobile landscape.  And now, with the iPhone 3GS free with a two-year contract, it is apparently selling so well that AT&T is out of stock.

According to AT&T during its financial call, “we have another device that I think is going to dramatically change those people that are on smartphones and quick messaging devices, the [iPhone] 3GS, which is free with a 2-year contract. We’ve seen a tremendous, tremendous demand for that device even though it’s a generation old. And actually, we’re getting more new subscribers coming on the 3GS on the average than other devices. So we also have an inventory sold out on that device.”

Yup, out of stock.  And get this.  The iPhone 4 and the 3GS were responsible for more than 56% of AT&T's activations in the last quarter - a quarter that Apple has said which the sales of iPhone were affected by the rumors of pending upgrade from Apple.

That was at a time when the 3GS was still $99.  It was not until last week that the 3GS went free.

I don't know just how big of a quarter that Apple thinks it'll have this Christmas.  The 3GS maybe 28 months old, it bought off the Palm Pre, dozens of Android devices (some made to look like the 3GS to confuse customers), start the slow downfall of the Blackberries, and kept Windows Phone with a couple of percentage of marketshare.

Apple decide its tenure isn't over yet. And why would Apple retire it?  The 3GS does not have the most impressive specs anymore.  But when it comes to providing actual mobile computing experience, it still has a lot to offer.

The iPhone 3GS is capable of running the iOS 5.  Obviously, it won't run all of the new iOS 5 features but it will benefit from some of the iOS 5 improvements.  My question is will it be able to run iOS 6?

And what new features can it continue to benefit from future iOS upgrades? However, judging by the folks who are buying the 3GS, I'm not sure they care to have all the latest and coolest bells and whistles.  They now have an iPhone.

And as Steve Jobs once said "It's like giving a glass of ice water to someone in hell".

Via Cult of Mac,

First iPhone 4S Commerical - It's About Siri, Obviously.

Here is the first iPhone 4S commercial from Apple. Obviously, it's about Siri.

It's good but I think it doesn't tell a story like some the FaceTime commercial but it was able to deliver the message about Siri.  You don't hear from Siri until the end of the commercial.




Don't have an iPhone 4S and you're on the fence?  Does this commercial convince you?

Source:  Mac Daily News, Appleinsider.

Location-Based Services With Friends Could Be Fun - If You Avoid All A Sense of Creepiness From The Service Providers

I wish I had this when I was in high school.  Checking in, broadcasting my locations to my friends, find out where my friends are, and generally socializing with them over our mobile devices.  I think I was sociable enough when in high school and college that I could get a kick out of this.

I started thinking about this when I was using Find My Friends and Latitude with Dave the Mobile Sage, my brother, and a couple of other friends.  It was fun because I trust these folks.  And when my mom gets her updated iPad 2 next week, she'll be able to check up on her adult children to know that they are safe.  Mom are that way and always will be.

Obviously, there are times when you don't want people to know where you are at all times so you can hide from them if you like.  The settings for both of Apple and Google's services are easy enough.  What you kinda have to worry about is if you forget to play with the settings.

More at Greenjava.

iCloud: Others Have Done Cloud But Apple's Ecosystem Is Going To Be Where Cloud Takes Off

We are starting to see some signs of life with iCloud integration.  I don’t mean just with Apple’s apps like Mail, music, or photostream.  Nor am I talking about Pages or Numbers.  It’s the third party apps that are starting to come out that is interesting and I figure Apple’s iCloud could be huge for the app market.

There is Remember the Milk and Goodreader, two apps, that I can think off right off the top of my head.  I’m sure there could be other docs related apps that will take advantage of the storage feature in iCloud.

Personally, I’m looking for a way to upload videos that I take.

And looking through my list of apps, I can see a few that I would like to have immediately.  I have a few art apps like Brushes and Sketches that I sometimes like to dabble on.  Wouldn’t it be nice to be be able start start something in the iPhone and move it over to the iPad or desktop version?

In some ways, I iCloud is an extension of what I already can do with Evernote and Springpad but I want it for more than just text syncing.

If want create something on Garageband on the iPad, I also want to be able to see it immediately on my Mac.

And that is the essence of iCloud after all.  And furthermore, some people might noticed that some of their mobile app versions are a bit dumbed down than their desktop apps.  It’s the developers fault.  And if they want iCloud syncing, they need to make sure parity of features is essential.  Otherwise, it makes no sense for an user to create a file and not be able to fully edit it on their iOS devices.

In looking at my list of apps that I’ve bought over the last two years, I can see other examples where developers can integrate iCloud with their apps.  And what’s cool is that Apple is givng developers an opportunity to push mobile use in a new direction.

I can’t wait to see what we’ll see in the coming months.  In fact, I've got a brilliant app idea where iCloud could play a crucial role. Of course, I need to learn to create an app first.

Note: If you're on iOS 5 or Mac OS X 7.2, you really need to register for an iCloud account.  It's free and you've got nothing to lose.  You'll begin to see what I'm talking about here.