Never Thought I See This Day

Last time we went out to dinner with a bunch of friends, it started off well enough but as the night went on, it devolved into. iPhone-fest, or a smartphone-fest (not everyone had an iPhone). Folks were texting, updating their social status or checking in, just gaming. A couple of folks even texted each other from different ends of the table.

It was partly why I gave up using my G1 and iPhone with data. I am using an iPod touch with an iSpot but its not the same as an integrated device like the iPhone.

But today, my aunt and uncle, as well as a few of their friends came to visit. I served them tea and they chatted. They had not seen each other for weeks now.

I left them for a while and came back to the living room. It was quiet. And it was a sight I never expected to see.

My uncle was playing Angry Birds on his iPad, my aunt was hacking away on her iPhone trying to solve a sudoku puzzle, another aunt was playing mahjong on her iPad, and another of their friend was playing who knows what.

I guessed I shamed them a bit with a comment or two about what they were doing (or not doing) be because they stopped.

Still, it was not something I expected my elders to be doing.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPod touch

iPhone Really Coming In The Fall? Maybe (So, I'm Wrong) And It Might Be Good For Apple

There are a lot of expectations that Apple will release the next iPhone in the fall rather than the summer.  It truly defies what Apple has done in the past.  I myself have argued that Apple will stick with its annual update.  Now, we are a week from May and it doesn't look like Apple will be holding its annual April event to introduce the next iOS  So does this mean that I'm wrong and that we are looking a later date for the next iPhone release?  

Well, I came across this post from TUAW that articulated three points support the fall iPhone assertion.  I'm not afraid to admit that I'm wrong.  I'm not wrong...yet.

Three Reasons Apple Will Release the iPhone In The Fall:

First, the two iPhone models just got released.  What?!  That's right.  The CDMA iPhone was just released by Apple and Verizon in February.  It's now late April, 2.5 months ago.  And as you know, Apple sold 2.2 million of them CDMA models in about six weeks.  Not bad and more is likely to come as more folks get off the two-year contract train with each passing week.  

And then there's the new white iPhone that will go on sale tomorrow, 4/28/11.  How many more million of the white iPhone models will AT&T and Verizon, with a combined customer base of about 180 million users, sell?  Lots.  

With the CDMA iPhone being on the market for four months and the white models out two months when the WWDC comes around in June, it's like we're not going to see a new iPhone model for a while.  

The second reason the post brought up is back-to-school and synconizing with the rest of the iOS line-up, the iPod touch for the fall.  All of that makes sense.  And as a matter of fact, I think Apple might be onto something with respects to back to school.  Traditionally, Apple has a back-to-school program where a student can get a free iPod with the purchase of a Mac.  Now consider this.  You're Apple.  You want to hurt your competitors, Microsoft, Samsung, HTC, LG, RIM, and HP, how would you do it further?

How about back-to-school program that includes iPhones.  Buy a Mac and get a free iPhone 3GS or $100 off an iPhone 4.  Heck, Apple might even be able to give the iPhone 4s for free.  

The third point they made is iOS update.  Provide developers at a "developer" conference beta version of the next iOS and release it in the fall, just in time for the traditional fall fresh that is reserved for the iPod.  Now, Apple can release the iPhone along with everything else.

I'll add a fourth reason.  Apple just sold nearly 19 million iPhones.  That's a lot of iPhones.  And by pushing the next iPhone back to a later date or at least put into the mind of anyone who wants an iPhone but might put it off because Apple won't to deal with a slowed iPhone demand due to anticipation of a new release.

All of those points above make a lot of sense.  However, if Apple should move the iPhone release beyond June, it will not make sense to do it along side the iPod touch update.  The iPhone and iPod touch separately cater to two different demographics.  Nevertheless, there is an overlap.  And give these hundreds of thousands, potentially millions of iOS customers the choice between the more expensive iPhone or more valued iPod touch with the same specs, they may go with the touch.  I happen to fall into this segment.  

If anything, Apple might release the iOS 5 to developers in June at the WWDC and then release the iPhone in August, six to eight weeks before the next iPod touch release.  

So, what do you think?  By August, the black GSM will be 14 months old, the CDMA six months old, and the white models four to five months old.  Perfect time for an update.  Still, June release is not out of the question yet.  

More at TUAW.

Location Tracking: Apple (And Google) Has Some Explaining But It's Probably Nothing We Need To Worry About

It's been confirmed through a photo that the President of the United States has an iPad 2.  Obviously, Mr. Obama is not the first head of state to use an iPad nor will he be the last.  And dozens if not hundreds of law makers also make use of Apple's revolutionary and "magical" (not my word) device in the course of service to the public.  And with the news that the iOS device, specially the iPhone, may be keep information about the whereabouts of the user in a file on the iPhone and iTunes profile, is this a danger or violation of privacy that we need to worry about?

No.  It's a concern.  If it's a bug, it needs to be fixed.  If there is something more to it than that, we should get to the bottom of this.  Google's Android, its openness is debatable, is not curated and, it soo, also record geolocation of its users.

To be fair, I like to see all mobile companies get an opportunity to defend this specific practice before we go nuts about it.  And I like to see Facebook explain their views in this matter as well.  It's likely that the social network, with a history of violating its members' privacy, will become a major mobile player, either as a content and platform provider or quite possibly as a mobile OS provider one day.

I do hope that if various hearings that being planned in the US, Europe, and South Korea are about getting to the truth and not to be used as an ax to grind for whatever political and/or economic reasons. 

Right now, I'm not worried  in the least.  Not with iOS or Android.  And if President Obama isn't worried, nor should you.

Watch For T-Mobile Moves To See if iPhone Is Coming

It's late April and there is still no iOS demo from Apple.  However, Boy Genius Report is showing off some pictures with a demo or engineering white iPhone unit working on T-Mobile's network.  Yes, this is kinda of like a rumor.  No one knows what this truly means and it opens the door for fun speculation.  

So, does this mean that the iPhone is coming to T-Mobile?  Well, let's just say that it will.  What we are not sure about is whether by the time the iPhone makes it over to T-Mobile, T-Mobile will still be called T-Mobile or it'll be called AT&T.  

But there is a way to find out.  Just before Verizon got the iPhone back in February, there were signs.  AT&T made moves to try to lock in iPhone users deep into their contract, 12 months in, by enticing them with early upgrades.  Then also, Verizon made some moves with its cancellation penalties.  

Right now, I would look to see if T-Mobile makes similar moves that mirror what AT&T and Verizon did.  It is probably a stronger indication that it is getting the iPhone than some ambiguous pictures from Asia.

Note:  T-Mobile doesn't just operate in the US.  So I wonder if the photos in BGR's report are from other T-Mobile territories.

More at BGR.

Verizon Sold 2.2M iPhones - So Who Did Apple Take Sales From?

Apple sold almost 19 million iPhones.  3 Million of them went to AT&T while 2.2 million CDMA versions were sold on Verizon's network.  Two point two million of a 9 month old, albeit fantastic, mobile device.  Who's buy them and which company had the most to lose from the Apple-Verizon partnership?

Three Distinct Groups:

Let's examine who's buy these iPhones on Verizon's aging CDMA network that does not allow the user to talk and access the data through the 3G network at the same time.  My guess is that its a mixture rather than greater subset of anyone particular group.  With over three million iPhones activated with AT&T, it is suffice to say that plenty of people stuck with Ma Bell despite its reputation of spotty network.  I am sure a large segment of the market went with Verizon that defected from AT&T.  After all, more than a few stuck with them because of the iPhone.  The demand was bad enough that Verizon struck a deal with Apple despite its popular Droid line.

Also, iPhone is a whole new device in and of itself as far as current Verizon customers are concerned.  While Android has done very well on Verizon, it largely cannibalized many Windows Mobile and Blackberry users who wanted a modern mobile device with a modern mobile OS but were not willing to switch to AT&T to get the iPhone.  Let's just say as a T-Mobile customer who wants the iPhone but wasn't willing to suffer on AT&T, I know what I'm talking about.  It's why I went with the G1, the very first Android device, and haven't upgraded since.  These Verizon customers fell into the second group.

The third group is what's interesting.  No love but AT&T but subscribers who will tolerate Verizon.  I may count myself among this group in the near future.  As a T-Mobile customer, I might consider switch to Verizon later this summer should a new magical iPhone becomes available.  T-Mobile has been bleeding customers and a large portion of those 2.2 million iPhone users with Verizon were former T-Mobile customers.  And I reckon that if T-Mobile doesn't get the iPhone in 2011, more users will defect to Verizon.  Sprint's core number of subscribers should be pretty loyal but there are likely a few million users who, won't do this business with AT&T, are going to be fine with Verizon as their iPhone carrier.  

Who Had The Most To Lose:

Android has the most to lose and had had its momentum slowed.  Believe me when I tell you that Android Proper, not variants that have been commandeered by some carriers around the world, continues to grow beyond expectation.  While the Android platform probably saw a slowdown, Google does not necessarily have a lot to lose.  After all, it continues to deliver search and mobile ads to Verizon iPhone users.  In fact, Google may benefit more from iPhone users who are more likely to spend money than Android users.  

Motorola is probably a bit loser in all this.  First off, Xoom doesn't seem to be doing the level of business for Motorola as the iPad was, and the iPad 2 is now, for Apple.  2.2 Million iPhones potentially means quite a lot of Motorola-based Droids that were not sold.  This is especially harsh for Motorola given Apple's relationship with Motorola that dated back to when Apple used to make Macs based on PowerPC chips designed and manufactured by it.  Then there was that Rokr debacle that everything that was the iPod phone that didn't quite go anywhere.  Motorola had really turned things around with the Droid devices and it was the top dog until the iPhone came along on Verizon.  Things might get better with the new Droid but that is probably going to be short-lived after the next iPhone upgrade happens to come along.

What about others?  Samsung's Galaxy S probably has not sold well since news of Galaxy S II is just weeks away but the iPhone 4 probably did not help matters.  RIM has done well with the Blackberries and global growth has been good.  However, it's position with Verizon has been diminished greatly since Verizon turned its attention to Android devices after the Blackberry Storm failed to live to up expectation.  The iPhone likely ate into a lot of sales.  iOS devices will continue to erode RIM's place in the enterprise.  

Competition is great.  We are watching an epic tech war that was a lot like the one fought and won between Apple and IBM in the early 80s and then Apple and Microsoft in the late 80s through the mid-90s.  Apple is still involved as is Microsoft but there are more elements and players involved.  Google, Adobe, RIM, Samsung, HP, and RIM just to mention a few.  A lot is at stake.  And the winner has already been determined as far as mobile device tech is concerned.  

I look forward to seeing how the rest of 2011 plays out as the mobile war becomes more interesting with tablets getting into the mix.

Again, competition is great and we mobile warriors are winning so far.

GPS Tracking Information That Our Phones Store - Apple And Google Are Both Guilt

It's one of those things that I think companies know about and do but doesn't want to talk about it.  Keep tabs on their users is a gold mine for companies.  Companies like Google and Facebook want to be able to know what we're up to and how to best monetize that information.  Others like carriers might want to know how to best optimize their networks.  

So why does Apple want that information?  

It's too soon to tell.  Supposedly, this information isn't something new and have been covered in the past without fanfare until a couple of security "experts" decided to bring it to our attention.  

Personally, I'm not worried - not yet.  And it's not like this information is something that Facebook, which is a lot more dangerous to privacy, will ever get it.  

Still, I want to know why Apple is gather this information.  Supposedly, it could be a bug where information were not purged as it was supposed to.  And yes, Apple can ("is" to some) be evil so we'll need to watch this closely.  At least we know that they're not selling out info to the highest bidder like others who make their living off selling advertisements.

According to WSJ, Google is doing it as well.  So it doesn't make any better.

Tablets: Post PC Computing? Is iPad Growth Too Fast?

Given how fast the iPad 2 is selling compared to the original iPad a year ago and the growth of the whole ecosystem that supports it, I wonder if the tablet market, specially one that is dominated by one player, is growth too fast.  And why is it growth so fast?   

This year, it's been estimated that Apple will sell about 30 million iPads, quite possibly 45 million with a few really high-end predictions putting it at 60 million.  Let's just take the 60 million iPads for 2011 and say Apple manages to sell 60 million by 2013.  Sit back and take a look at those numbers.  That's a big big jump from 2010 to 2011, about 2x.  Then from 2011 to 2013, another 2x.  

By 2013, the tablet market as a whole may reach 100 million tablets.  Then where would it go from there?  200 million in another 24 months?  Here's where post-PC comes into play.  Something has to give.  That means laptop sales, with the netbook segment of the market having already collapsed, could suffer a cripple blow that it might not recover from.  Laptops, and some desktops, will still continue to have a place in society, in business for sure.  However, PC in homes will likely diminish greatly.  

In the early 2000s, Microsoft pushed the Windows Media Center, basically a customized Windows with added media software, as the center of a home entertainment system.  Obviously, even Microsoft's dominance in the PC operating system has not helped its push into the living room.  Instead, it has found greater success selling the Xbox. Now, Google is trying it hand with Google TV, so far, met with muted reception at best.  Even, Apple has largely failed to light things up with Apple TV.

And this is also one market that the iPad could potentially find success.  With the introduction of Airplay, the user can stream video and music wirelessly to accessories like stereo systems and HDTVs.  Yes, HDTV becomes just another accessory in the home.  Of course, to stream to the television today, you still need the Apple TV.  This is why there's rumblings that Apple may be looking to license Airplay to manufacturers.  (One factor that hardware makers do not have control over is the content.  Apple, Samsung, Sony, and Microsoft might be able to provide the architecture but without the content, it would be useless.  This is why an ecosystem like iTunes and what Microsoft and Sony has built out on the consoles will be very critical to their continued successes.)

And we come back to growth.  How much more growth can the tablet market, with Apple retaining a large piece of the pie, sustain?  If the tablet can take the place of game consoles and media centers, I would say it can continue to grow at its current pace for at least another decade.  

It also depends the evolution of apps and the nature of productivity on the tablets.  It is possible in ten years, a majority of mobile warriors from the corporate work carry around tablets instead of laptops.  

And to continue growing, tablets will need to a lot of help in the education market.  Yesterday, Tim Cook, Apple's COO, said iPad adoption in the education market has already reach a 1 to 1 parity with Macs. That is quite an impressive feat for a device that did not exist 13 months ago.  The iPad was just built for the k-12 market.  We'll see an explosion of iPads in schools in 2011-12 owing largely to the ease of use and plethora of educational apps.  The only folks who will be hurt by this are laptop makers and printers that print textbooks.  Maybe the early go getters in the backpack market can benefit from this shift in mobile computing in schools.

Still, a lot of moving pieces have to go the tablet's way for it to continue growing at the pace its at now.  Continued innovation followed by revolutionary thinkings about traditional computing and content distribution.  Amazon has gotten into the music locker business without the blessing of the studios and looks like HP might try to do the same.  We'll see how all this play out this summer.  If the stars align just right, perhaps we just might see 60 million iPads sold through 2011 instead of "just" 30 million.