Fear And the Mobile Market – Fear Is Driving Innovation and Deals and Shaping History

Greed may be a good thing (thought I disagree), so is fear.

It’s a very well-known fact that Apple wants to sell us hardware at a profit margin that its shareholders can respect.  It’s also a very well-known fact that Apple doesn’t want to do anything like owning contents or creating apps when it doesn’t have to – it lets others do the work for it.  However, there is one exception:  when Apple feels threatened.

It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Apple will be replacing Google Maps on iOS with its own mapping implementation.  Apple has already bought two companies that we know of and I won’t bore you with what they do and how they’ll fit into Apple’s iOS and OS X ecosystems because no one knows for sure yet.

And with this new mapping app, Apple will displace Google on hundreds of millions of devices.  It’s perhaps the fear, which has now been realized, that Google went out and bought Android.  In the early days, the fear of being shut out likely came out of Microsoft’s past misbehaviors.  Pre-2007, which was before the iPhone and G1, it was just Windows period.

There really was no mobile market to speak of but primordial soup that spawned today’s mobile devices and ecosystems was bubbling hot.  And everyone knew riches could be made in the hundreds of billions.

And at that time, Apple and Google were best buddies because they were on the verge of shutting out Microsoft in the mobile market.  As history until now would tell us, nothing on the market could match Android and iOS.  Symbian did nothing for Nokia while Palm gave it its best with a crack team of former Apple developers and engineers.  Microsoft has begun to show life with Windows Phone and promises to shake things up in the mobile market with Windows 8.  As for RIM, well, it may not see 2013, at least, not in the same form as it exists today.

And all this could have started because of Google’s realization that while it provided a great search engine and many useful webapps, it was in danger of being made irrelevant if Microsoft won’t the mobile war or if Steve Jobs turned on Google – both scenarios were likely in 2007.

Imagine if Google decided against developing Android and decided to trust in Apple.  Siri is on the verge of changing search and Maps is on the way out.  If you thought Facebook’s stock price tanking is bad, imagine Google’s own valuation with Android.

And this is perhaps why Facebook is in such a bad shape now.  The $1 billion Instagram buyout was a move made out of panic and fear.  Not only does it fear of being shut out of mobile platforms, it also fear that inability to capitalize on mobile will be supplemented by other social apps.  Now, there is chatter that Facebook could be working on its own mobile devices.  I’ve even read some weird ones like Facebook buying RIM.

As mobile fans, we are better for the competition that Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM, Samsung, and others are providing in the mobile market from devices to OS to apps.  I can’t say that it’s all because of fear.  However, the fear of being shut out or seeing history repeated has been a large driver here.

At D10, Tim Cook Offered A Few Clues About Apple's Direction and Zero on Products

The headlines today are buzzing with what Tim Cook said about Apple’s TV plans, Siri, and Facebook.  Which is to say that what he said is kinda what Steve Jobs would have said which is to say that Tim Cook said nothing new.

There, I’ve said it.

On television, Apple is said to be very interested.  Who in consumer tech today isn’t?  Apple TV or Apple HDTV. Or would it be an Apple cinema screen that is 40+ inches and up with Airplay support?

On Siri, more to come.  Obviously.  It’s in beta now and we can expect more.  And we want more.  So, this was expected.  It isn’t as if Tim Cook was going to say “nah, we’re done…we’ll have Siri speak Mandarin and then we’re finished.”

On Facebook, this is where it’s more interesting.  Facebook wants Apple’s customer data and Apple isn’t keen on providing that.  The issue is who will blink first or some sort of compromise will be struck.  Zuckerberg has shown to be his own man after not being able to strike a deal with Steve Jobs.  And while Tim Cook is much more low-key, don’t be fooled.  Cook did not become the CEO of the richest and biggest company in the world simply by giving the key to the walled garden away.

iOS will tell us more about what Apple has planned for Siri and how Facebook could figure in all this.  As for Apple’s TV plans, we only know that the 2012 Apple TV is selling better than the previous 720p version and may double sales this year.

As for Apple’s HDTV or display panel, my speculations are gold, which is to say, it’s as right and as wrong as anyone else’s.

Tim Cook’s first D10 chat with Walt Mossberg unveiled what direction he wants to steer Apple and nothing about products.  As far as innovation and consumer tech vision, it’s likely to be aligned with that of Steve Jobs.

Friday Movie Clip Feature The Time Lord

Source:  Blastr.

Sometimes finding the right Friday movie to post is a bit daunting because there is so much to pick from.  So many great shows and movies out there.  Not this week.  This is the first clip I'm posting that is from across the Pond.

Doctor Who.  This is a 3-min video called "Good as Gold".  I suppose it's like a webisode of sort.  I like to see more of this from shows and movies.  I like to see a lot more of it.

Apparently, the script for "Good As Gold" came from a school contest.  Go figure.

Hope you enjoy this.  I did.

Mobile: Google+ Could Get Features That Mobile Warriors Will Find Useful (Maybe Save Money Too?)

Source:  The Verge.

Looks like Google is slowly but surely putting more effort into making mobile Google+ apps with more features that are, well, more mobile. Makes sense since Facebook has shown that it simply cannot make money as users stop using desktop versions and, instead, spend more time on mobile.

According to The Verge, there are strings in the codes that references "events" and "local".  Both are welcoming news as far as we're concerned.  I reckon this could be the events feature that Google has featured about in a separate app and local like means check-ins and probably deals.

We won't know for sure but I think Google realizes that it'll be just as hard for it to make money off ads on its mobile apps as it has been for Facebook.  And going local with local commerce where Google can get a bit of each transaction may well be how it can monetize Google+ and other location-based features.

Let's hope we see this sooner rather than later.  I am a sporadic use of Foursquare - only the lack of local savings has kept me from exploring it more.  Maybe Google has found a way for iPhone and Android users to save money and Google has found a way to take advantage of that.

Forrester Agrees With Me: Apple HDTV Is More Like a Giant Airplay-Ready Display

Source:  On Apple, MacObserver.

In our previous post, we suggested that Apple's HDTV won't be a TV at all.  If anything, it will only be an Airplay-ready display.  Oh, it'll be HD but it'll likely lack even a TV tuner.  For that, you'll have to pay extra for an accessory, likely, from a third party.

Apparently, others agree.  I'm glad that Forrester is turning to the corner to this idea.  And more and more, I think this is also what Steve Jobs said when he told his biographer that he cracked the TV conundrum.  Don't make a TV.  It's that simple.

This is also supported by folks who have "seen" the Apple display as a giant Thunderbolt display. This Apple HD Display will serve as the center of all living activities while Apple's iOS devices serve as conduits through which content flows.

And if you want extras like paid TV subscription like cable, Netflix, or iTunes content, you just have to pay extra for this.  All apps can be mirrored onto the screen.  Perhaps this is why we may never see an app store for the Apple TV.

Forrester, I like the way you think.  However, I disagree with you that the display will have touch sensitive.  It makes no sense.  Other than that, I think you're right on the money.

New York Times Sold Its Soul To Get Eduardo Saverin Interview

It's official.  NYT has sold its soul and, now, it articles are mostly based on biased pieces that hit individuals or companies based on access or not.  And in Eduardo Saverin's case, ES granted NYT an exclusive interview without any sort of in-depth analysis whatsoever.

I read the whole piece thinking I would find some hard hitting questions about Saverin's betrayal of the country that gave him and his family sanctuary.  He claimed his giving up his US citizenship was for other reasons other than avoiding paying taxes.  NYT mentioned a thing or two about the estate taxes but never drilled him further.

Folks, use Google+, use Path, use anything but Facebook.  The dude is a jerk and NYT bought the act.

Apple's Unicorn 7" iPad Has To Last (In Terms of Battery Life)

Today, Apple-centric sites are quoting a Wall Street analyst in saying that a sub-9.7” iPad will do well in school and be quite popular with gamers.  To that, I say, “no #$%, Sherlock!”  I think many bloggers are getting lazy.  The thing that would be more fun than talking about this is speculating how a 7, 7.85, or 8 inch iPad would impact not only the market but also change how tablets are used.

Let’s do that here.  First, battery life.  I think I can say for everyone who has own an iPad, tablet, or laptop is that battery life is very important to just about every mobile warrior.  That’s like the first amendment of any mobile warrior’s bill of rights.  What’s the point of not having long-ish battery life on any mobile device.

If the 7” iPad can keep up with the iPad in terms of battery life, look out.  You’ll be seeing a lot more of these devices on the go.  Be it for students, gamers, or business uses like delivery drivers or a mobile sales force, such a lighter and smaller device would be ubiquitous.  It’s going to be everywhere.

What if the 7” iPad has say 7-8 hours of use?  I can see a lot of use come out of this still.  However, anything less than 7 hours, you can pretty much forget about it.  A regular workday can last from 8 to 10 hours.  Quite possibly even more.  For a student, the hours are 6 to 7 hours a day, longer if the student go to a study group or the library that could well add another 4 to 5 hours.

Now, even at 10 hours for the current iPad, it’s unlikely the user is going to be using it through the whole 10 hours straight.  It’s likely an iPad can take an user through a whole day.  That’s why I suggested a seven hour battery life for the 7” iPad might be feasible but that is really pushing it.  Anything less than that, you run the risk of having a tablet run out of power half way through the day.

Ideally, you like Apple to maintain the 7” battery life to match that of the 9.7” iPad.  It’s possible.  The 7” iPad wouldn’t need to power a 9.7” Retina Display with its 2048x1536 and keep it at 10x24x768 like the iPad 2.  The smaller screen with the smaller dots could still give users a nice flaw display.  Certainly, it’ll be better than the iPad 2 display.  And with new tech, a 7” iPad could work with a thinner and more efficient display.

And Apple could afford to give the 7” iPad a battery that is big enough to power it for 8-10 hours.  But will Apple do that?

My speculation is that a 7” iPad with 8 hours of battery life is very likely.  I would love to have 10+ hours but I doubt that will happen.  There is precedent for this.  Consider the Macbook Air.  The 11” MBA gives the user 5+ hours while the 13” MBA offers 7+ hours.  From the 11” to the 13”, the battery life difference is around 30%.  If you translate that to the iPad, the drop in battery life from the iPad to the 7” iPad is from 10 hours down to 7”.

However, Apple could potentially squeeze another hour or so by reducing the speed of the CPU and using smaller and more power efficient components.  The current crop of new iPad 2 uses a newer 32nm version versus the 45nm chips in last year’s iPad 2 and this year’s new iPad.  According to Anantech, the newer iPad 2 offers a longer battery over last year’s and this year’s iPads.

In fact, we might be able to go as far as to suggest that a 7” iPad with 8 hours is very much in the books.  Provided that there is a 7”, 7.85” or 8” iPad at all.