Leave of Absence for Apple's Steve Jobs

This just in.  

Steve Jobs of Apple Inc will take a leave of absence citing distraction his health situation has created.  In the letter, Jobs indicated his health situation was more "complex" than initially thought.  

Tim Cook will take over day-to-day duties.

Source:  Yahoo News (AP)

Note:  After Jobs initial explanation a couple of weeks ago, many doctors were quoted in the media wondering if Jobs' cancer had returned.  Then, a hormonal issue as stated by Jobs was easily remedied. 

Wish you the best, Steve.  See you in June!

What To Expect From Apple In First Half of 2009

It's over. There will never be another one like it. For the last Macworld Keynote, we weren't blown out of the water with anything spectacular. Blogs and podcasts alike have been all over how this ended.  


Nevertheless, those of us follow Apple will just have to soldier on and wait for those special events that dotted the calendar year for updates on existing Apple products (and maybe new ones too).  So, what do I personally expect in the coming year?


Based on my years of watching Jobs, Apple, and their product cycle, and I can make some simple predictions for folks new to the Cupertino scene.  Just as Apple have declared, product introductions will take place in smaller venues at special events at a time of Apple's choosing.  Usually, the media is will receive an invitation that provides some sort of clue to what Apple has planned.

The iMac is due for a refresh.  There are plenty of rumors and I don't traffic in them but I believe that given the update the aluminum Macbook received (Nvidia chipset is the most important change from the previous generation).  It's possible the iMac will receive a similar Nvidia update though I think one might consider an older iMac with its dedicated ATI GPU.

Now the question is when will the update happen?  On Apple, along with everyone else, expected to see the new iMac updates at Macworld.  So, what is the issue here?  Simple stick in Macbook parts into the iMac and you're done, right?

Well, Apple has one of two routes to go in updating the iMac.  They can simply update the iMac line quietly and be done with it.  Alternatively, Apple can issue a summon to the press and make an event to announce the update.  As I said above, the invitation may offer a clue to what Apple has planned.

Here's the thing.  The current iMac is still pretty good compared to other desktops from others but Apple's desktop sales has suffered.  If Apple drags this any longer, I will start to believe that Apple has more planned for the iMac than a simple fresh.

Also, if the iMacs are updated soon, we should see another one in the summer just as the back to school rush is gearing up.

Mac Mini.  I'm not touching this one.   If you want good reliable information, try the Apple website or the Apple store.  And if you want rumors, any Apple or Mac-centric blog will oblige you.  However, I have to say outside of the Macbook, I'm most interested in the mini's future.

I can tell you what I like to see as far as the Mac mini goes.  Meet the Mac Hybrid.

Mac Pro also needs a bit refresh as well.  I'll be honest. I have not interest in a Mac Pro (more power than I need right now and $$$).  The new Mac Pro will inherit Intel's Nehalem architecture.  I'm pretty comfortable with this prediction.  When?  I'm more certain of Mac Pro updates than of iMac updates.

Macbooks were just updated in October and the 17" Macbook Pro just showed at Macworld.  We might see something in the spring.  Note that the 17" Macbook Pro, with its revolutionary new battery implementation, may be joined by the 15" Macbook Pro eventually.  8 Hours of battery life.  I'm drowling bit time.  I hope by the time I upgrade my Macbook in a couple of years, we'll see 10-hour battery lives across the whole mobile Mac line.

Lastly, how about iPhone updates?  This is where it gets tricky.  I'll save this for another entry.  There's a lot of moving parts in the mobile market and the iPhone hasn't matured to the point like the Mac or the iPod.  

Apple Execs - Hot Commodities

Given the good press the Palm Pre is getting so far in the media, one part of the story that is mentioned but hardly highlighted is the people behind Palm's latest and best chance of turning things around.

Now, we don't know if Palm Pre or the new widget-based OS will be the new OS X of the mobile market. There will be a lot of waiting, analyzing, blogging, and speculating along this line and we'll see a lot of comparisons to Apple and Apple's turnaround because a lot of the folks at Palm now trying to revive the company were former Apple executives or engineers. Certainly there are top names we've all heard in the media. Lesser known are the number of former Apple engineers.

However, should Palm succeed in turning it around, imagine how hot former Cupertino executives will be, especially those who had the fortune of being personally schooled (or ripped a new one) in the Jobsian view of the world.

And there is no denying that Palm Pre's UI and other implementations will get a lot more scrutiny and comparisons with Apple's mobile platform than with RIM or Windows Mobile. Mud will be thrown from the blogs on the Apple camp and Palm devotees will respond in kind. But at the end of the day, these former Apple executives will still need to convince us that Palm Pre is a product to be reckon with and that it's worth our while to consider it a good alternative to the iPhone. More importantly, that Palm is back.

Guessimating Apple's Netbook Strategy

We know Steve Jobs will never release a netbook for the sake of doing it.  Nor is Apple's answer to the netbook the iPhone.  A couple of weeks or so ago, folks started comparing iPhone shipments to netbook shipments.  You'll have to excuse those people.  It's the Holidays.  We're in a recession.  We were all dying for news, rumors...anything from Apple or Mac related (little did we know that last week, Apple would stir up controversy with their Jobs-no-show-at-Macworld announcement).

If you're looking for a netbook running OS X, MSI Wind remains the best solution.  For those will are willing to wait, this is Apple's $600-$700 netbook (I've reduced the price by $100 since November - but I can't go lower to $500 because it will be too close to the iPod Touch 32GB model).  Let's call it "iDevice".

• iDevice will take the form of a tablet.  Not clam shell like netbooks.  No keyboard.
  
• Run iPhone/iPod Touch OS.
• It'll do what it's suppose to:  play movies, do 90% of all Internet and computing related tasks adequately (e-mailing, surfing, writing, runs apps.  It will be able to do everything an iPhone can do.  But there should be applications specific also to iDevice.  
• 6-8" screen size.  Possible a 10" model as well.  If it looks anything like a bigger iPhone, it'll be closer to 8" and/or 10" model (I had previously stated there will not be a 10" model.  I have since changed my position).  $600 for the 6-8" model and $700 for the 10" model.  
• Battery will not be user-replaceable - this is one is obvious.
• iPod
• There will be accessories specifically branded for iDevice.  As with anything Apple, it will cost you.  For example, an Apple specific keyboard  may cost $100 even though it's not much more different from the wireless Bluetooth keyboard for the Macs.
• Runs on chips related to Apple's recent acquisition and investments in chip companies.  I'll be honest in saying that I don't know much about chips beyond Ghz and cores.  But from the talk of graphics performance and power efficiency, it does make sense.  We are no talking about Intel's Atom.  And given how powerful the iPhone is, there is might even be a need beyond using what is already powering the iPhone.
• This may be wishful thinking on my part but it's possible Apple may allow for e-ink to save power for reading.  I doubt this since Apple has yet to made a move on ebooks.  
• Wi-Fi.  Maybe 3G for tethering with iPhone but it's possible that a deal in the making with ATT for a special rate for Apple.  However, may people will be happy with Wi-Fi so I think 3G access is not likely.  After all, Apple has not offer it in the Macbooks.  Of course, with 3G, ATT may be willing to subsidize Apple's netbook
• 32GB.  Maybe more.  64GB.
• Additional Multi-Touch gestures.

Now, let me get back to iDevice accessories.  This is where Apple clearly has an advantage over other device makers and brands.  It can command a premium and leverage it's popularity and cool factor in creating a micro-economy for the iDevice very much the same way it did with the iPod brand.  With likely millions to be served, iDevice accessorizing will help Apple add hundreds of millions into its already big cash pile.  

And if we see the iDevice at all, I'm putting it closer 2nd quarter of 2009 (or maybe just before the back-to-school rush) than the first quarter of 2009.  Apple is going to be busy next year with the Mac refreshes, a new OS (Snow Leopard), and potentially more Macbook updates (bring the Macbook Air and 17" model closer in line to the new unibody Macbooks), and third generation of the iPhone.  

So, no netbooks as some analysts hope but something even better.  iDevice, like my dream Mac, the Mac Hybrid , are just my own speculations and please to do attribute this to anything more than not.  I did not get the specs above from a "secret source" or off some Chinese accessory maker's site.  It's just fun guessimation on my part.  

There you have it.  Apple's answer to the netbook craze.  Let me what you think.

Note: WSJ's All Things Digital also believes it'll be closer to $600.  It's entirely possible.  It's not a Mac but the iDevice is an exension of Apple's current mobile platform.  They've got a clam-shell looking device in their post.  And they still believe it'll be at Macworld 2009.  

The Reality of an iPhone Nano

There is an iPhone Nano.  There's also an iPhone Flip, flip phone for the iPhone.  With that out of the way, let's talk about the reality of such a device, the iPhone Nano, Nano for short in this post

The iPhone 3G screen is just the right size, making the case easy to hold in your hand.  Now, with the Nano, we would naturally have to believe the screen is going to be quite a bit smaller.  The iPhone sports a 3.5" Multi-touch LCD screen. 

Many other devices on the market with some sort of touch technology vary in screen size but one will never identify them as being small due to bulk and thickness.  Not to mention weight.  But coming from Apple, mobile users would have to consider a smaller screen, about 2.8" and just as think as the iPod Touch.

First the screen.  Why 2.8"?  I did a basic search into Verizon's touch screen offerings from LG,  HTC, and Samsung.  They fall between 2.8" to 3.2".  The T-Mobile G1 also has a 3.2" screen.  And dispite smaller screens, most of these phones have comparable body sizes to the iPhone 3G.  Given the attention Apple is expected to give to the Nano, we're likely to see a smaller and more elegant body if they decide on using 2.8" screens.  I almost want to say the Nano would be a smaller version of the iPhone.  I can't sure with any certainty because we're just making educated guesses here but I don't think we're too far off.

Could Apple possibly use a smaller screen?  I'm sure they can but given their aversion to buttons, I don't think it makes sense to have too small a screen for typing, given critics more to complain about.  However, I can't say with any great certainty but Apple may one day come out with an iPhone that has a physical keyboard like the Blackberries if they really want to push deeper into the enterprise market.  The touch will get them only so far.  A smaller screen with physical QWERTY keyboard is possible but not likely going to happen.

Here's another argument against screens smaller than 2.8".  Watching videos.  The iPod Classic has a 2.5" screen.  It is just good enough.  But try watching on the iPod Nanos.  When the action moves too fast, you can easily get motion sickness. 

iPhone Nano Body.  As I've mentioned above, if Apple uses a 2.8" screen, you can bet that Apple is going to make sure it's also thinner than the iPhone 3G.  It makes sense.  Go down to Best Buy or, if you're lucky enough to be close to an Apple store and check out how thin the iPod nano is.  Thin as heck.  I'm more certain about the 2.8" LCD screen size for the Nano than I am about the thinness but it sort of make sense.  "Nano". 

Apple will likely shave an ounce off the Nano.  If at all possible, under 0.4" thickness.  That's what I'm hoping for.  Keep in mind that iPod Touch is 0.33" thick.  I've allowed for more thickness in the Nano for added battery and other wireless chips.

The Nano will definitely be shorter length and width.  I'm going to go get into how much.  Apple will still have to fit in the 3G chip. 

Oh, and of course, it'll run iPhone OS along with all the apps in the App Store.  It has too.  Can you imagine the number of pissed off users and developers if the apps do not work properly?

Best Scenario For Macworld

This is just something I made up while chatting with Dave the Mobile Warrior on Skype last night about Apple's unexpected exit (unexpected from the standpoint of folks who were not graced to insider information). 

But when Apple VP Phil Schiller takes the stage as the keynote speaker traditionally reserved for Steve Jobs, just what kind of position is he being put it?  So, we dreamt up a cool scenario for the last Macworld Apple will participate in.

Schiller goes on stage and goes through his routine.  Great Christmas.  Great quarter they just had.  Billions made.  Then he tells folks the iMac, Mac Mini, and Mac Pros will all be updated.  Though it all, Phil gets forced ethusiastic applauses because of the impossible situation he's put under.  He knows it.

But then he says, "we've got a special guest I like to bring out to talk about the next revolutionary product from Apple.  You all know him.  Steve Jobs!".

Crowd goes wild.  A couple of live blogs go offline because their bloggers fainted.  Steve comes on and thank the Apple family for years of great memory and products.  Then says, "one more thing..." and blows away the crowd with Apple's answer to the netbook.  Apple's own TV.  The Mac Hybrid I've been advocating.  Something else awesome because Steve says it is.

That would be the perfect end to the Macworld as we know it. 

There are a number of theories about why Jobs won't be at Macworld in 2009 and Apple leaving Macworld permanently. 

• Some believe this is related to Jobs' health.
• Some believe there is a changing of the guards at Cupertino. 
• Some believe this is Jobs being pissed off at something.
• Some believe Apple at its words that trade shows like Macworld are a thing of the past and Apple stores, the Internet, and smaller events are just as good at creating hype and better to reach out to customers and converting new folks to Mac and the iPlatform.
• Some believe its about expectation.  Macworld is the only event where there's expectation that an announcement is coming year after year.  Again, it's about expectation.
• Some believe this was made for financial reasons.  Stop the bad stock movements. 

What do I believe?  I'm inclined to believe it's not health related.  As for mobile warriors, we going to be fine regardless of whether there is a Macworld or not.  It's the passing of time.  While I for one will miss one, I wouldn't mind having those smaller special events.  In fact, I believe this will likely be the scenario for future announcements.

I'm going to make one prediction here.  Future product introductions will be made live through Apple Stores.  It can be at a venue in SF, in an auditorium on Apple campus, or just about any Apple store if they chose.  But wherever the product launch is being held, it'll go live to all Apple store worldwide.  You'll get live blogs as usual for these events but for those who can make it to the stores for these live broadcasts, they'll feel closer to the action.  For Apple, it'll bring in tons of foot traffic. 

That is how future Apple announcements will be made.

Konami Turns iPhone and iPod Touch Into Serious Gamers

I had planned on posting some updates about portable gaming over at Onxo but that's on hold for a bit as we absorb the great news about Konami's mobile plans for Apple's mobile platform.

You read it correctly.  Four games from powerhouse Konami.  Big bad KONAMI!  What are the games?

• Silent Hill:  The Escape
• Frogger
• Dance Dance Revolution

And here's the big one:

• Metal Gear Solid Touch!

No word on when these games will be coming to an app store near us.  But this bit of news makes up for the sadness I feel from Apple pulling out of Macworld and knowing that Macworld 2008 was Jobs' last keynote.  Back to gaming.

Sega's presence with Super Monkey Ball was a great coup for Apple.  But since then, we haven't had a lot of power house developers from Japan joining the iBandwagon.  And these games aren't just any lowend games.  These are legacy titles we're getting from Konami.

This new development does help Apple make the case that the iPod Touch and iPhone are contenders in the mobile gaming realm.  I wonder who's next?

Links:

• Konami Touch (In Japanese...sigh)
• Gizmodo
• Joystiq
• TUAW

Note:  For some reason, I thought Frogger was already available on the app store.  It might be from Atari.