Google's Mobile Domination & Apple's iPhone Success Means A Facebook Phone Makes Zero Sense

Apple may have achieved nearly 60% of total smartphone share in the US.  This news coupled with the talk that HTC and Facebook are working together to bring a phone that focuses on all things social within Facebook’s realm.  The question for Facebook is why brother and if it insists anyway, which OS will Zuckerberg use?

I’m not sure that Apple can sustain this level of domination in the long run.  Nor am I saying that it won’t.  These things have a way of playing out and Android’s appeal does not seem to have diminished despite the iPhone 4S success.  The threat to Android comes from execution, not the OS itself.  Forking, delays in updates, and social issues like security and privacy are what could make things difficult in the long run.  It has nothing to do with what Apple is doing.

However, the iPhone 5 is coming out in six to seven months.  While that seems like a long time away, the above mentioned issues for Android isn’t going to get solved in that time.

Now comes to Facebook’s smartphone.  I don’t know what to call it.  fPhone?  fbPhone?  How about zPhone for Zuckerberg?  Yeah, let me go with the zPhone.

Facebook has a close relationship with Microsoft.  Microsoft is both a source of resources and an investor.  Forking Android is the obvious solution but I wonder if Redmond might try to get FB to try out Windows 8?  It would certainly be a huge boost for Microsoft.  I mean let’s face it.  The whole Windows Phone market is Nokia’s Lumia, nothing more and it has not yet caught fire on the scale both Microsoft and Nokia had hope for.  I know that the mobile war is about the long game but you’d at least want signs that things are promising.

So, forking Android is the obvious choice for Facebook to use in the zPhone.  And if Microsoft and FB can work out a deal to use Windows 8, it would mean forking Windows to some extent as well.

But why bother with the zPhone at all?  Does FB believe that it can persuade its legions of users to abandon iOS and Android in favor of its own device?  With FB’s track record regarding security and privacy, it’s highly doubtful that it can appease both users, marketers, and regulators all at once.

And if FB does really come out with its own phone, it needs to continue onward to developing its own music and video store.  It’ll need an app store.  Oh, why stop at the zPhone.  It’ll need a zTablet to compete with the iPad.  And with Apple possibly releasing its own television, FB is going to need its zHDTV as well.

Oh, and there already was a Facebook phone from HTC.  It's called the Status.  And the current status of the Status is not so good.

iTunes Sales Bigger Than iPod For Apple's Latest Quarter

Check out this graph from Macrumors.  There is more info at there on Apple's latest financial call.  I'm not going over it much because not all of it matters to the regular mobile users.  However, this graph is telling.

iTunes sales has iPad sales beat by 2% in the overall revenue pie for Apple. That's a 40% advantage iTunes enjoys over iPod sales.  Not long ago, iPod was king.  It was the single device that saved Apple and launched Apple's domination in mobile.  

More importantly, iTunes content could be future drivers at Apple.  Right now, all the focus is on the iPad and iPhone but it'll be content accessibility that will help Apple's iOS hardware make further inroads into education and enterprise.  Not only that, should Apple finally unveil what Steve Jobs meant when he said he cracked television, the whole iTunes ecosystem is going to be key.  

In a few years, we might see iTunes break beyond 10% of Apple's revenue.  And should mobile payment become available, regardless of Apple's own take and implementation, watch out.  

Google Drive: It's Real and It's Live Now!

It's official:  Google Drive is live now.  You get 5 GB free.

This is what the competition offers:

• iCloud: 5 GB
• SkyDrive:  7 GB
• Dropbox:  2 GB (but you can increase this if you get friends to sign up)
• Box.com:  5 GB (though some like Touchpad users have 50 GB)

Which do you prefer and does standalone companies like Box and Dropbox have a shot against the mobile giants?  

Apple, Foxconn, And China Event - Manufacturing Really Ain't Coming Back To The US, But Clean Tech Is Key To US Future

Last night, I attended an event put on by KPCC, a public radio, in Pasadena that featured Marketplace's Rob Schmitz, the man who helped exposed Mike Daisey's lies about Apple, Foxconn, and details about the Chinese workers he met.  It was an excellent event with a packed house.  And I'm grateful to be living so close to such great organization.  And Mr. Schmitz was a great and accessible guest.

This morning, I read this post from The Daily Beast on manufacturing.  And it got me thinking about manufacturing and whether we can really bring back some of these factory jobs that Apple and others have been exporting for more than a decade now.

I spoke a bit with Mr. Schmitz about it.  From the Steve Jobs biography, we knew that President Obama asked Steve Jobs how he could bring these jobs back and Steve pointedly told him they're not coming back.

For a while, I thought if companies like Apple can invest in high tech consumer goods, they can also investing in high tech manufacturing that would require less labor.  We do know that Tim Cook is investing some of Apple's billions in securing a supply chain, insuring Apple will have ample supplies to satisfy demand.  While I won't get into the details of the conversation we had from last night, the point made to me was, no, those jobs ain't coming back.

However, the future couple be more American ingenuity and our ability to think out of the box.  Clean tech could be something that we can export to the rest of the world.  I happen to agree that clean tech is going to be where the future is at, including renewable power.

Hopefully, whoever is in the White House come 2013, we will continue to put more of our eggs in the green industry.  Anything about green seems to be just as much a dirty word to the right as anything carbon-based is to the left.  So, it's understandable that tech and green entrepreneurs are growing increasingly frustrated and disenchanted with Washington.

LTE Matters And Android Sales Could Be In Trouble If iPhone Gets LTE

When Verizon reported its earnings last week, I was surprised by just how well the iPhone held.  And today's earnings release from AT&T has me thinking that the gains made by Android over the last couple of years before AT&T lost iPhone exclusivity isn't holding well.

I won't be editorializing here but just to present the fact.  A little more than a year ago, Verizon Wireless began carrying the iPhone, albeit CDMA version while the HTC Thunderbolt began making waves as one of the first LTE device.  Later in the year with the introduction of the iPhone 4S, Sprint joined AT&T and Verizon in carrying the iPhone.

We don't know Sprint's results yet but we know those of the two biggest US carriers.  With AT&T's 5.5 million smartphones sold, the two biggest carriers sold a total of 11.8 million smartphones.  Apple accounted for 7.5 million of those devices, or 63.55%.  While Sprint has not reported their earnings, there is no reason to believe that the iPhone will account for at last half of its smartphone sales.

There are many ways to read into these numbers.  Both fans of Apple and Google's platform can go all "Democrat and Republican" on this and spin this their own way.  However, as a mobile fan, it is trouble to see Google's Android, armed with Android 4 and LTE, has yet to make a significant pushback against a 3G device.

But as a whole, we can conclude a couple of things.  First, LTE matters and the 4G branding that AT&T and T-Mobile are so fond of pushing doesn't.  This is why LTE devices can hold their own against the iPhone at Verizon while the lack of LTE at AT&T has the iPhone walking all over the competition.  Second, the average mobile warrior is very savy.  We didn't buy into 4G marketing crap and this means if Sprint and T-Mobile doesn't pull their LTE acts together, they're in a lot of trouble.

And if you want to go further, the mobile war is far from over.  Competition is intense and market share in terms of units sold and profit coming out over the next month or so will show that. It means that Microsoft and Nokia, despite the lukewarm reception of the Lumia line, may yet have an opening if they can push Windows 8 out on time with hardware that is on par with competition.

That means Apple and Google will need to continue to bring their A-game with iOS 6 and Android 5.

At KPCC in Pasadena, CA

I am live tweeting from the Crawford Family Form in Pasadena, CA. The subject will be about Apple, China, This American Life and the behind the scenes.

Interview with Marketplace's Rob Schmitz who exposed Mike Daisey's lies.

You can follow at @paul_onxo.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

HTC To Design Itself Into Oblivion - Picks Thin Over Longer Battery Life

This is a lesson for Apple.

Something is seriously wrong at HTC.  Now, I like thin.  The fact that the mobile devices today like the Galaxy is pretty light and thin is something that I can appreciate.  The Motorola RAZR is thin too.  Very thin.  And both look very handsome.  I guess HTC is catching up to that.  At least that’s what HTC thinks its customers are tell them.  Sorry, HTC folks.  We like thin but we rather have longer battery life too.

See, HTC said that customers have told them they want thinner phones over longer battery life.  I guess most HTC users like to see their devices tethered to a wall socket or simple stare at future thin HTC devices because they want out of power after 4 to 5 hours of use.

I don’t know how HTC came to this conclusion but nothing could be further from the truth.  Many a blogs have ridiculed this notion.  Just look at the Motorola RAZR.  I’m sure it sold a few but considering how quickly Motorola released the RAZR Maxx, which is thicker because of the added battery inside, I would wager with anyone that the MRM is selling far better than the MR.

HTC got hammered when the iPhone went on more carriers and it is getting punched in the gut hard by Samsung’s Galaxy.  And now, HTC wants to make the mistake of taking design into a new direction:  less battery life.  It’s like a kid who was harassed by two bullies and then tries to get up to fight back only to slip and fall in his face.

What HTC is trying to do is decrease cost.  As competition mount, HTC came to the conclusion that it would have to compete on cost without sacrificing margin and profit.  By building smaller and thinner devices, not to mention using less expensive material, it could still compete.  It might work on some segments of the market but on the high end where margins are better, it will fail badly.

HTC could theoretically continue to create wonderfully great high-end devices but if its reputation for bad battery life permeates throughout the market, users are gonna look elsewhere for their high-end Android needs.

Hopefully, Apple has a better sense of balance between form and battery life under Tim Cook.  What would you want