Mobile War Far, Far From Over

While it’s half time now in America, according to Mr. Clint Eastwood, we’re probably in the middle of the second quarter in the mobile war.  For a while, folks, tech pundits, bloggers, and analysts, have kinda given Android a 50+% share of the market with the iPhone somewhere around 25-30% and the rest to be split up between RIM, Windows Phone, and others.

Well, I’m gonna tell you that is very premature.  The dynamics of the mobile market, both smartphones and tablets, are is great flux.  No need to recap what’s been going on.  Just know that the latest development in mobile is Microsoft’s entry into the hardware business.

And Microsoft is a company that has a reputation for not necessarily getting it right the first time around but doing whatever it takes to get it right.  Patience and persistence.  Microsoft doesn’t really have a choice.  This is not a market that it can afford to lose out.

So, we just learn that Amazon is furthering its reach with the Kindle Fire by offering its app store in Europe.  This ought to be very interesting given that updated Kindle tablets should be ready for the upcoming Christmas shopping season.  So, Amazon’s mobile plans are definitely in its infancy despite dominating the ereader market.

Then there’s also Apple that just launched its App Store in 32 other countries or territories.  You would think by now, Apple has already circled the glove within its iOS ecosystem.  And there are definitely more carriers and countries where iPhone and iPad penetration has not started.  And given Apple’s focus on the Greater China market, Apple has a lot more innovating and growth to go through.

Obviously, there’s Google.  Android is the most popular smartphone platform in the world but, somehow, I doubt Google is happy with the way things are going.  Lawsuits galore but it is also the feeling that things are slipping away from Google with respect to control of Android.  The core Android OS has been forked for various use that not only do not have necessarily any benefit to Google’s mobile plans or bottom line but are increasingly becoming competitors.

What Google has in store for Motorola.  It’s a card that has been held closely to its vest but we should know in short order.  As a mobile fan, I can’t say that I am happy with the deployment by hardware makers and carriers of Ice Cream Sandwich.  It’s just horrendous.  Maybe Google’s Motorola devices will get timely Android updates the way the Nexus devices have been.  And this ought to light a fire under its quasi-partners to step it up.

Lastly, Microsoft.  I know, there’s also RIM.  Blackberry 10 is a story for 2013 rather than 2012.  And that is assuming RIM is still around in 2013 as it is now.  More and more, RIM’s technologies (patents) and the Blackberry brand is more valuable in pieces to be sold off rather than trying to recapture its glory days.  And its corporate stronghold is slowly being eroded by the iPhone and will soon have to contend with Windows 8 smartphones as well.

So, that brings us back to Microsoft.  This week’s Windows 8 developments certainly has the desired effect – if raising eyebrows is what Steve Balmer intended.  Microsoft’s only major point at Monday’s LA special event where they unveiled its Surface tablet is this:  we’re doing hardware.  Many questions were left unanswered and the biggest one is will Surface be more of a Nexus or serve to further growth Microsoft’s revenue and profit like the iPhone/iPad has been doing for Apple.

And remember:  Microsoft can be persistence.  Stubborn, in fact.  And Surface will not be its first try into the mobile market.  We’ve seen it with Windows Phone 7 which has kind of served as a reset, new era for Microsoft in mobile.  We’re currently at Windows Phone 7.5 so Windows 8 should be Microsoft’s third try at mobile.

With Surface tablets, it shows that Microsoft has learned something valuable in the last couple of years.  Once Microsoft’s tablets go on sale, maybe we can finally call that the start of the third quarter in the mobile war.

Concept iPhone With Translucent Back - Well, You'll See

Source:  Forbes.

Forbes thinks this is stupid but they want it. I think it's brilliant and I want it.  It's a concept iPhone with a clear black that when you look at the iPhone, you can see clear through whatever is on the other side.

Again, I want it!  I think this is possible (eventually) and it could really make even today's thinnest smartphone look obese thickness-wise.

Obviously, there are gonna be issues like making the circuits, memory chips, CPU, and a bunch of other stuff really, really small.  I reckon it'll  have to be like 10 to 20x smaller than what we have today and up to 50x more power efficient.  If you look at this thing from the side, there really is no place for you to put a battery.

Having said that, I've always believed that we can reach this level of tech sooner rather than later.  Look at how calculators have shrunk over the years.  Look the collection of calculators from laurentian.

And remember those HP scientific calculators?  Yup, and now, we have calculators that run on the smallest most inefficient solar cells like the ones you can get for a few bucks at Office Depot.  We even have calculators on watches!

So, the question of whether we'll see this the-through concept iPhone or any other device isn't if it'll happen, rather, when it'll happen.  One think I believe whatever make such a device should do is allow the option to opaque the background so it can be less distracting when the user wants it.

So, iPhone 10 or 15, anyone?

Microsoft Tablet: Surface Demo Froze, Too Early To Call It "Fail"

I'm still waiting for more details to come out before chatting up (or down) Microsoft's Surface which I think has a lot of potential - so much so that I think Apple/RIM/Google fans could be in for a rude (maybe wonderful) surprise.

Meanwhile, these videos are circulating the Web - a Surface tablet that froze during Monday's demo in Los Angeles.  It's quite interesting to watch because the poor MS exec had to cover for the Surface freezing on him during one of the most critical demos in Microsoft's history.

While Youtube videos are calling this a fail, which it kinda is, mere points to the attention that Surface is generating.  I can totally see my next tablet being a Windows 8 device but there are a lot of issues that Microsoft has to work out and provide much more details about what the Surface tablet is really capable of.

Obviously, you can go with a safe choice in the iPad.  And Android fans can go with the Samsung Tab 10.1, the only Android tablet worth our hard-earned wages.  However, Windows 8 promises to provide something that neither the tablet market has seen.

Obviously, the details from Microsoft could ruin all that - like battery life, crashiness, costs, etc.  Until then, anti-Microsoft camps can enjoy this "epic fail".  I think it's all in good humor and we'll have to see if Redmond can really deliver.

This Surface freeze isn't an epic fail.  An epic fail would be Microsoft's tablet efforts in the 2000s.  This time around, hmmm, we'll just have to wait and see.

Apple & Facebook - Privacy Protection Or Open Floodgate?

I like that Twitter was integrated into iOS 5 and I use it quite a bit.  With iOS 6, I’m not as crazy as with Facebook integration largely because the lack of safeguards by Facebook to protect its users.  And now, they’re looking into lowering the age bracket that can join the social site, I’m afraid things could will be much worse since Facebook isn’t interested in protecting the children from predators and the bad elements of social media.

So, it falls to Apple and what it is doing to safe guard iOS and Mac users, many upon many are children.

So, Apple, I ask you this:  what is Apple doing to safeguard the privacy of its loyal users?  Is Facebook free to figuratively walk through Apple’s data centers and literally sift through the millions upon millions of bits of information about us?

I understand that if I share something via iOS 6 through Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg would have access to that information.  Well, what if I don’t want to share my location or contact list?  Right now, I am who I am with my Facebook account but I do everything I possibly can to avoid giving up any detail about me that I don’t think Facebook has the right to know.  I fear that by integrating Facebook in iOS 6, Apple will force those who wants easier Facebook access to give Facebook more information.

I suppose I always have the choice of not using Facebook via iOS 6.  But if using Facebook on my iPhone or iPad means that I have to give up contact info like I am forced to do on Android, then Apple’s Facebook integration is no better than what Google has.

I’m hoping that Apple is aware of this and will give us more options to use Facebook or  others without giving social media access to everything.  I like Twitter on iOS 6 because it don’t have access to everything.

Supposedly, iOS 6 would give the user more privacy control.  I think that’s a great thing, something I like to see Google and Microsoft provide for its users.  If implemented correctly, users would be able to dictate which apps can have access to contact lists and, hopefully, other information like locations (App on iOS now asks for permission to locate users but I like there to be a more case-by-case option).

I hope this privacy control also works against Facebook's prying eyes as well.

One more thing.  While I was completing this post, I came across this Patently Apple post.  Apparently, Apple had been working on a new way to counter websites that try to connect user data.  PA dubbed it the Anti-Brig Brother surveillance patent.  I’ve read through the long-ish and detailed post a couple of times.  I had to because it was pretty interesting and you get the sense that Apple is trying to go that extra mile to protect (maybe hoard for itself) iOS and Mac user data.

Apple Standalone Podcast App Could Be Disruptive For Content Producers Especially Studios

I don’t want to get into rumors but I would like to speculate on this one:  Apple may be giving podcast producers and listeners their own app.

And if this is true, wow, this could be a huge deal depending on how far Apple wants to take this.  I think it’s quite possible that this could be a part of what Steve Jobs said to his biographer when he said he cracked television.  If I’m right, Apple could be cracking more than just television but video and audio broadcasts as we know it.  And broadcasts would no longer be known as “broadcasts” but as podcasts as well.

When I learned about this standalone podcast app, I started digging through Internet tubes to find out as much as I can about it.  They all kind of reported the same rumored details.  So, it left me to wonder and do what I love to do: speculate wildly.  Here goes.

Apple could go further by giving the app the ability to subscribe to podcasts, whether in video or audio, and allow producers to charge for them.

Yup.  This is the key to it all.  Imagine a podcast app that allows the producers/authors to charge for their podcasts.

First, let’s step back a bit.  If you think podcasts now, you think the hundreds if not tens of thousands of audio as well as video podcasts that people can download via iTunes or any other podcast capture app.  Some of these podcasts range from mere just ramblings to professional grade productions.  Some, again, are just ramblings (like this blog you're reading) that has found an audience to music selections to even dramatic or book readings.  And as far as the subject matter, well, there is virtually no limit.

Giving podcasts their own app could be a great benefit for podcast discovery.  Maybe on the most basic level, this is what Apple hope to achieve.  It's just like the apps getting their own app store or ebooks with the iBooks app.  Or, Apple is up to something even bigger.

If given a subscription function that allows payments, audiobooks could be podcasts and give authors the ability to charge users directly for access instead of going through Audible.com, Amazon, or even Apple’s iTunes. It also works for any other podcasts as well.

Sure, Apple is likely going to be collect their standard 30% fee.  Before you start thinking about how greed Apple is, consider this.  Right now, podcasts are generally free or rely on the goodness of the hearts of its listeners to donate funds.  So, podcasters were not making much money if at all.  Also, consider authors who likely got very little proceeds from audio versions of their books.

There is a podcast called Mysterious Universe that I listen to on occasion during my jogs.  It has free podcasts but also has more content available exclusively to paying listeners.  More recently, Your Mac Life also switched over to a subscriber model to help foot the fill for the podcast. I can't tell if subscribers also get additional content or not. Even if not, appreciative listeners who want to help sponsor podcasts would be able to do so.  All this is done through Paypal or a third party (or themselves).

And while they currently don’t have to share their revenues with Apple, by allowing subscribers to directly purchase the paid subs will likely increase the size of the paid audience than they currently have via iTunes.  The ease to purchase subscriptions using this podcast app instead of making users go directly to the website could be worth giving some money to Apple.

Now, let’s look at what independent studios can do if they want to produce higher qualities of podcasts.  They could produce shows like those old-time radios or even videos.  The podcast app would allow the studios to be paid.  And they would instantly know the size of their audience and the popularity of their shows.

Should this take off, this would instantly send chills to the various studios, broadcast channels, and cable/sat TV companies.  The shockwaves will instantly upend the ancient distribution models.  Howard Stern would not need Sirius but can communicate directly with his audience when they pay him directly.  Imagine other celebrities producing podcasts that their fans are willing to pay for.

Public radio and television shows can be supported directly by fans if they chose.  Suppose This American Life continues to offer its podcasts for free as they do now through the app. Now, they can offer paying subscribers if they want additional audio or even video for the show.

And right now, the timing for podcasts to expand could not have been better as throngs of users cut the cable.

I’m gonna take this speculation even further.  I’m sure you’ve been frustrated by ABC, NBC, Fox, or another channel that puts a show on broadcast but cancels it midseason or kills it before there is a satisfactory conclusion to the show?

One show that quickly comes to mind is Firefly (wiki). The podcasting app could have give Josh Whedon the opportunity to release the shows in podcast format and let the fans pay for the show.  A meddlesome studio exec would not have been able to interfere with the show.

And a show’s continuation and popularity would be directly tied to the number of paying audience for the show.

And with podcasts, the broadcast rights would not be limited to American audience but expanded worldwide so that insane contractual agreements would not be able to hinder audience in one country or region from enjoying the show.

The question is how likely is this to happen?  I think the chance of Apple offering a standalone podcast app is 100%.  As to whether Apple will provide the app subscribe and pay for podcasts, I think that’s got a less than 50-50 chance of this happening.  Apple might threaten to do this to get terms it wants from studios.

And the other issue cost but I don’t see that as an issue.  Small producers or studios can get financing from other studios or banks.  Even from Kickstarter as well.  A video show like those we can on TV can cost tens of millions to produce.  Let’s suppose a show costs $50 to $100 million to produce twenty videos.  Compensated for Apple’s cut, they could jump to $70 to $140M.

Now, suppose each show has an average of 5 million subscribers.   It would cost about $15 a season for the $70M show or $30 a season for the 140M show.  Not entirely unreasonable.  The cost could actually be much lower because the audience could be much bigger.  And it’ll be even more profitable if these shows prove to popular and get picked up for broadcast or syndication.

Again, this is just speculation on my part and Apple’s new podcast app being used in this manner is highly improbable.  Again, if Apple does go this route, it will have a global impact on producing audio/video shows.  It could also do something for producers that Google’s Youtube won’t be able to – make money.

And if my speculation is even remotely close to what Apple has happened for this podcasting app, it may not be called “podcast” and could be a killer app for its iDisplay, some call it Apple’s HDTV, plans.  Maybe the podcast app would have a "screencast" component as well.

Possible Nexus 7 Details Emerge

Source:  GottaBeMobile  via The Verge.  

 Okay, so there’s the iPad and an assortment of Android tablets today.  Oh, and let’s not forget the Kindle Fire.  That’ll be joined by some new Windows 8 tablet soon which will be announced today by Microsoft at 3:30PM PST.  Now, these are likely spy-pics of Google’s Nexus tablet.  Looks like a 7” variant (I say variant because I’m sure we’ll see other Nexus tablets in various sizes). 

From the pic, it looks like it’s called Nexus 7.  From the imagine, we can gleam that the resolution is quite possibly 1280 x 960, which is at a much higher resolution than its likely closest competitors with the Kindle Fire’s and Samsung Tab Plus 7’s anemic 1024 x 600.  If I may go a step further into the rumor world, Apple’s unicorn iPad coming in between 7-8” is suppose to have only 1024 x 768. 

Is this pic for real?  I hope so.  And there’s chatter that Google could price this to compete with the Fire at $150.  With the specs I’m hearing and at this price, it could be going after not only Amazon but Apple and Microsoft as well.  Personally, I don’t see an iPad or Windows 8 tablet priced at $150, much less $200.


Below is a video showing us what we can expect from Nexus 7.  The experience is likely to be similar.  I cannot way to see this tablet and how others from Apple to Microsoft to Samsung to Amazn/BN responds.

iOS 6: New Maps Is Nice But Bunch of New Small Improvements Key

Apple announced a bunch of new features like Maps and Facebook integration.  They got all the attention. Oh, Passbook is nice and it's not getting much love from blogs.  Nor are a bunch of small unhighlighted improvements that taken together shows how Apple's attention to details make iOS and the iPhone and iPad so popular among mobile warriors.

Here are a couple that I like:

• Geofencing for Find My Friends and Reminders.  Seriously, how awesome is this?!
• Better privacy features - this will give the user more control than Google or Facebook will ever give its users.
• Store improvements - as good as the App Store is now, Apple will continues to try to make it even better for app discovery.  The same goes for iTunes.  In fact, Apple is moving the podcasts over to a standalone app.  And when you download/update an app, iOS doesn't take you away from the store.  It has been an annoying "feature" we've had to put up with for years.
• Different mail signatures - not a big deal for me but it's nice to have if I never need it.
• When a call comes in, the ability to dismiss the call with a reminder or text is pretty awesome.  
• Government/Emergency Alerts
• Better notification controls.  You can control what notifications come in first for e-mails.

Lastly, I have to mention Passbook again.  And I warn you.  I'm gonna want talk about this quite a lot because more than television, it'll be Passbook that could be one of the legacies of Apple like Siri has the potential of becoming.  Passbook is Apple dipping its foot into the mobile payment arena.  With or without NFC capability, Passbook could revolutionize retail and how we pay for goods and services.

Oh, and there's something about emoji improvements that I'm not particularly interested.  But it's here if that's your kind of thing.  

So, there you go.  Worthy iOS 6 improvements that in their own rights could have been mentioned at the WWDC keynote last Monday.  Among those I mentioned above, geofencing and privacy control are my favs.