Apple Retail Is Booming; It Is A Bad Measure For The Economy

During the last recession with the whole housing and financial meltdown of 2008, Steve Jobs vowed that Apple will innovate its way out of the recession.  And it did.  It grew faster than most other companies  And put a lot of cash in the bank.  And amazingly, its retail business has grown beyond the wildest dreams of pundits and analysts.  

USA Today's post mentioned that Apple now accounts for a fifth of retail growth.  It's not bad for a singularly narrowed focus on few lines of consumer products.  Just wait until Apple gets into, oh, say, HDTV or something like that. 

In the same post, it suggested that Apple's growth could serve as a litmus test for retail sales.  I suggest this to be a major failacy.  While companies were laying off people during the recession, Apple sales were growing and hiring people.  By that measurement, we had no recession.

It just goes to show that Apple is an entirely different entity all on its own.  And its retail growth will continue to explode.  Just about every major product will be updated between now and just before the Christmas shopping season starts.  How do you hope to try to see how the economy is doing by Apple's measuring stick?

Boy Genius Report On RIM's Rise and Current Fall - Recommended Read

I think everyone interested in the history of mobile and how it got here should read this Boy Genius Report post on RIM. 

It's a good place to jump in to get an idea of where things are, how the industry works.  It's also about brilliance and blindness that went together.  

RIM is by no means finished.  It's fans are as loyal as any I've seen and they've got a foothold others can only jealously covet:  the enterprise market.  If anyone company can return super-duper growth they've experienced in the last from the "pretty good" growth now, it's them.

At the same time, the post served as a reminder to other companies that what's happening to RIM can also happen to them.

Leaked Info That China Telecom To Start Selling iPhone late 2011 Could Be Apple Ploy

I don't know why this news is out now but I am sure this leak was not accidental or a wink-wink type. There was a lot of details involved.

According to Appleinsider, Apple will offer the iPhone to China Telecom to run on its CDMA network.

Ordinarily, Apple swears its partners regarding deals to total secrecy. But this leak had the taste of previous ones that suggests it was someone close to Apple who authorized it.

Why now? A couple of reasons come to mind. Apple's earnings will be out next week. Could this be a way to give the stock a bump if Apple misses earnings estimates? After all, even if Apple does meeting or slightly beat estimates, it may not be enough to the hedge funds or Overtly demanding investors who swear only by the whisper numbers.

Or it could be a ploy in Apple's negotiation with other Chinese mobile carriers like China Mobile.

If two of its main competitors start offering the iPhone before it does, maybe that is enough for a deal more favorable to Apple be agreed upon.

Obviously, I could be wrong. This Reuters report which Appleinsider referenced came during Asian trading hours. Maybe it was someone at CT who jumped the guy on the announcement.

But I still think this smells more of an Apple leak.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPod touch

Foregone Conclusion Apple TV Set Coming? Could Be A Game Changer If True

CNBC is reporting some Wall Street analysts considering just what kind of an impact Apple would have on the HDTV market as well as the content market as we know it today.  And it seems like they have already concluded that an Apple-branded HDTV is coming.  Let's take a look at this this means from the market and what it means for us, between now and until Apple actually does release something.

Now, about us.  Well, this is just a couple of Wall Street guys chatting among themselves.  Speculating.  And keep in mind that they are more often wrong than not and never has made any effort to explain the errors of their reasonings.  So, here's what to expect in the short term.

According to CNBC, the people who had a hand in the global financial meltdown of 2008 and various bubbles through the last couple of decades, Apple's HDTV means that it would have secured enough content that will drive a whole 10% of cable viewers towards its ecosystem and other streaming services like Netflix and Hulu.  

In effect, Apple's entry into the TV market, like it has done with other markets, legitimizes alternative means of consuming content.  Ten percent is bad enough but those are likely conservative losses for the cable and satellite TV market.

Furthermore, success is almost assured for Apple given its one of a kind ecosystem as evident with iTunes and iOS in the mobile market.  And with close to $70 billion in cash, Apple can leverage that as they have done in mobile by prepaying for parts.  Apple has the clout and might to pay for contents years out, something that competitors, even cable companies, would have it difficult to do.  Or Apple can buy the contents outright thought that is highly doubtful.  

But imagine if Apple locks up an ESPN deal with the NBA or NFL for exclusive digital distribution.  Pay upfront for first run movies or offer original content.  

So, how does these chatter impact us, the mobile users and consumers?  

First, there will be lots and lots of rumors.  In the past, I've helped newcomers to all things Apple where rumors come from, what they are for, and who they are for.  

Between now and the beginning of October, Apple will hold at least one even to introduce its iOS refresh:  iPhone, iPod line, and Apple TV.  Things will go crazy around August.  While like myself, you will enjoy reading about what Apple may or may not be releasing this year, don't base your buying needs on it.  Most of the rumors are made up, meant to freeze the market or keep one company or another, including Apple, on edge.  

Some rumors will be spread by Apple - particularly through NY Times or the Wall Street Journal.  Those, while fun to read, are meant for Apple's competitors, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.  

Rumors from the blogs work the same way but most are made up or speculations made to sound like rumors.  

But when Apple releases its HDTV, though I can see why they need to since Apple TV works just fine as a conduit between iTunes, contents, iOS devices, and the user, we can expect a radically different way to pay and interact with the content.  Yes, interact.  Through iPad or the iPhone.  It could also be about gaming as well.  

However, I cannot see why Apple needs to release its own TV or how HDTV will be any more different from those already on the market.  Apple's offering could be differentiated by what is built-in:  could be a build in Apple TV running iOS.  Instead of an Apple TV hooked up to a regular HDTV now, it would be an integrated HDTV like the iMac is.

I'm not sure that would enough to get consumers, except those who absolutely must have an Apple logo on their TV, to consider it.  

Hey, I'm all for competition and if Apple does enter the HDTV market and drive innovation and pricing down, I'll be pulling for them.

34% of iPhone Users & 29% of Android Users Think They Have 4G When They Don't

According to Macrumors, 34% of iPhone users think they have 4G and digging deeper into Retrevo, the company that conducted the survey, 29% of Android users think they have 4G.

I had expected that iPhone users are smart and more educated about their circumstances but after the initial read of the post, I thought "wow, iPhone users are stupid".  But doing a second and more thorough read, the reasons became clear.

The 4G being marketed by AT&T and T-Mobile certainly doesn't help.  You know, and I know, and most people know (66% of iPhone users and 71% of Android users) know that it's not true 4G.  But the marketing is marketing.  How those two carriers are allowed to do this is very perplexing and disingenuous.  

I like what Retrevo is suggesting.  We need to know what the clear speeds are from carriers.  AT&T is probably scared of this because they now have one of the slowest networks in the US.  And only Verizon among the major carriers have an LTE network while Sprint uses WiMax. 

Personally, I have had friends who came up to me about 4G and I did have to explain the current market situation in some detail.  Surprisingly, most do know what's going on.  Also, I did have someone at the Apple store crow about the "4G" advantage from AT&T over Verizon's 3G network.

Circumstantial Evidence Points to New iPhone Beginning of October

AT&T will be reworking the insurance for mobile, specially the iPhone start on October 4th.  9to5Mac seems to suggest this means that new iPhone should debut around that time.  

It's very strong evidence.  This will allow Apple to introduce the next iPhone in September along with the annual refresh of the iPod line, and possibly the next Apple TV and related media services.  

Source:  9to5Mac.

State of Emotional State of Mobile Fans

If you're an Android fan, you probably feel like the world whole is against your favorite mobile platform and Google and just about everyone is trying to do whatever they can legally to make it happen.  You're not alone. These days, all fanboys and advocates of every mobile platform probably feel like the whole world is against them.

The latest example is the Nortel patent bids in which a consortium lead by Apple outbid Google.  And while Google wasn't exactly ally-less, it had Intel on its side, doom and gloom about its enemies using those patents to suppress and isolate Android.  And then we also have to ask why was Sony allied with Apple, the folks who bring us the Xperia devices running on Android.  Where was Samsung, Motorola, and HTC?  Why did they not come to Google's aid with their own billions?  

Then there are all those dozens or so lawsuits against Android device makers on like four continents.  Heck, Microsoft likely makes more money from patent fees than selling Windows Phone licenses.  

And Apple fans are always embattled no matter what.  And they certainly find those lawsuits that Apple has lobbed against Android phone makers justified.  Everyone has taken to Steve Jobs and Tim Cook's line that Apple patented the heck out of the iPhone and won't be shy about defending it.  And they haven't.  

Still, in Appledom, since the original iPod, has had to face a number of iPod, iPhone, and iPad killers for more than a decade. Yes, there are even iPod touch and Macbook Air killers on slow news days.

So, let's continue on to other platforms.

As for Blackberry fans, the Palm and, now Web OS, fans can sympathize.  After owning the PDA market, Palm's market lead was usurped by Windows Mobile phones.  And misfire after misfire including the latest Touchpad, Web OS still has yet to gain any noticeable mind-share among mobile warriors outside of a few hard-core users.

Fans of RIM had hoped that Playbook would give them a rally cry after RIM missed a couple of quarters worth of earnings (while still extremely profitable) and slowing growth (still growth but just not as fast as competitors).  Of 400K shipped, RIM CEOs, during the last financial call, pointedly said there was no data on sell through but moments later they were happy with their data on Playbook sell through.  Which is it?  

And the delays, delays, delays.  All that has led blogs to swamp the subject of RIM in trouble and rumors of buyouts.  I'm not as close to Blackberry as I am with the other platforms but I do know what BB fans are going through.  While Apple and Palm went through their own dark days, RIM's darkest day so far has them putting billions in the bank.  

Oh, and we come to Windows Phone.  With Mango, the next major update from Microsoft, there is hope.  I don't know if these fan boys feel as embattled as the rest.  This is a brand new platform.  It certainly has its fans but it's too early for them to feel like the world is out to get Microsoft.  We'll revisit this someday.  But these fans should know that Microsoft is a seasoned corporation with a lot of tricks up its sleeve.

Now, let me throw in the video handheld guys.  Let's just focus on Nintendo.  It's DS line has made Mario and friends billions but iOS has come along and really disturb things.  But if anyone has as loyal a following as Apple, its Nintendo.  And there was hope that the 3DS would put all the naysayers to rest but dismal sales and lack of games has only reinforced the idea that Nintendo is no longer with the times.

And the slow roll-out of the update was irritant, speaking as a happy 3DS owner.  I reckon the next handheld from Nintendo will resemble more of a smartphone than just a dedicated gaming device.  Speaking optimistically, I think the Japanese gaming giant has had a lot of time to learn from the market.  Realistically, any changes won't come until after gaming market evolves even more.  

Nintendo is going to have to go after a fast moving target and hit a bull's-eye.  If anyone can accomplish the impossible, it's Nintendo.  The new unreleased Wii might give it some time and fans something to cheer about.  But time is short and we will be reminded on a daily basis just how Android and iOS are eating away at what is traditionally Nintendo's domain.  

So in conclusion.  Fan boys everywhere.  As long as the progenitors of your mobile platform continue to innovate and compete hard, you have every reason to be proud of the mobile selection you've made.  There is no reason to feel insecure or paranoid.  However, yes, everyone is out to get you.