Motorola Expected To Ship 1.3 to 1.5 Million Xooms Through the Rest Of the Year; How Will The Tablet Market Shape Up?

Feeling a bit numbed after looking at Motorola's numbers, this is worse than what I felt after seeing RIM's own quarterly result.  Now, Moto is saying it'll ship at most 1.5 million Xooms.

What more can I expect?  As a mobile fan, I had high hopes that Motorola can stage a comeback in 2011 like they did when they fell but came back with the RAZr phones.  

So, if this is how the flagship Android tablet is doing, you have to wonder just how other Android tablets can do up against the iPad, Playbook, and Touchpad.  

Doing some quick math and estimation here, I see the follow breakdown of the tablet market:

• RIM can possibly ship up to 1 million Playbooks a month
• HP can possibly ship  up to 500K Touchpads a month
• Samsung can possibly ship up to 2 million Galaxy Tablets a month
• Other Android tablet makers can ship up to 1 million tablets a month
• Apple can ship up to 5 million iPads a month

Take some liberty with the figures, this is how I see the tablet market break down once all the dust has been settled.  The figures I've provided are based on monthly sales:

•  Apple 7.50M 53.57% 
•  Galaxy 2.00M 14.29% 
•  Playbook              1.00M 7.14%
• Touchpad              0.50M 3.57% 
•  Other Androids       1.50M 10.71%  
•  Others               1.50M 10.71% 

As you can see, based on the interest levels in tablets other than iPads, I've given Apple more than half of the tablet market based on some estimates I've been able to get from the Web for the next couple of years.  Maybe I've given some of the tablets more or less figure than they deserve.  And certainly, Apple numbers are probably too low (sorry, Apple fans).  

And yes, I've left out Microsoft.  Simply put, given what we see with Windows Phone sales right now, there just isn't not that interest in Microsoft's mobile OS.  While Nokia's entry into the market later this year could change that, an increase sales of Windows Phone devices does not translate into interests for Windows tablets.

Also, I based my figures on the 50-60 million tablets estimated to be sold next year.  My figure came in around the mid-point of that range.  As for the individual breakdowns, those are only my guess based on the most updated quarterly information on the Web.  Also, I purposely left about 10% for "others".  

I think my forecasts are pretty conservative when it comes to iPad sales.  In one recent report, Informa doesn't have Android challenging the iPad for market share until 2015 (MacdailyNews). This new estimate is considered a push-back from other estimates I've seen earlier that put 2013 when Android tablet volume will surpassed iPad sales.

I guess what I'm saying here is that until Google and its partners really push hard Android tablets or another platform has a breakthrough, even conservative estimates like mine has the iPad with a large share of the market.

Only 440K Xooms Shipped; I Had Held Out for 600M+

Motorola Mobility in their financial report reported by shipped only a dismal 440K.  Honestly, this is pathetic.  For the flagship Honeycomb device, Motorola and Google has really dropped the ball.

By now, I was expecting about a million tablets shipped a month.  And this figure is even worse than just 440K.  The number Motorola provided is shipped, not the sell through.  

I think it all hinges on Samsung now.  The Galaxy brand has a better following and should be able to do better.  On top of that, Amazon is rumored to be prepping up to 4 million Kindle tablets for the Holiday seasons.  

Hope of anyone with a fight chance against Apple's iPad comes down to Amazon and Samsung. 

Source:  Motorola.

Someone Finally Listened To Me! Apple Interested In Barnes and Noble, What will Google do?

I said this three years ago and again two years ago.  And when Borders started going out of business, I said it as well.  And finally, someone is listen.  BGR reports one of their sources has knowledge that Apple is looking hard at a Barnes and Noble takeover.

And it would make a lot of sense than BGR is suggesting.  These megastores have the room to accommodate Apple's expanding needs.  in fact, Apple could convert Barnes and Noble stores into super destinations for its fans.  And should Apple start to sell TV and expand its reach, it will need places to display them.  Current stores do not have enough room.

Furthermore, I like to see Apple save the brick-and-mortar book stores.  I think the two companies would be a perfect match.  

The question now becomes what will Google do?  Or Amazon and Microsoft?  Neither of these Apple competitors have the retail reach Apple does.

Source; Boy Genius Report.

Did Windows Phone 7 Shrink Below 1% or Grew Big Time?

Is Windows Phone catching on?  Nielsen reports that Windows Mobile stands at 9% of installed base in the US.

In the last report, WP7 took 1%.  This time around, Nielsen did not provide data for WP7.  But WMPowerUser blog optimistically suggests that Nielsen folded WP7 data into the Windows Mobile data as one and that WP7 has increased so much that it is able to off-set loss of older Windows Mobile devices.

That is possible.  Until we get clarification from Nielsen, we won't know with any certainty.  We do know that there are the "other" section with 1".  

3DS Hurt By iOS Sales - Nintendo Pain To Get Worse When Gaming Comes to Apple TV

Due to the high flying iOS devices, iPhone, iPod touch, and the iPad, Nintendo has slashed the price of the newly released 3DS from $250 (the amount I paid for) down to $170.  I would be pissed if not for the free games I I should be getting from Nintendo for my trouble.

My issues aside, Nintendo is in a world of hurt.  As like $324 million of hurt.  That's how much Mario and friends lost in the latest financial result.  And what I did not realize was that they've been bleeding money for more than a year now.  

What happened?  Apple.  That's what happened.  Take your pick. iPhone.  iPod touch.  The iPad 2.  This kind of power hit Nintendo hard as it has sold just over 700K...worldwide!

While Nintendo did address the slow start of the 3DS out of the gate, they still refuse to acknowledge the real issue and danced around the true issue of changes in the mobile market and Apple roadblock.  

Certainly new games from 3DS will help things in the second half of the year but Apple isn't sitting still.  For the Holidays Season, Apple is expected to refresh its iOS lineup.

What's worse, Apple could be gunning for the console market indirectly with the Apple TV.  Airplay allows iOS gamers to through the Apple TV.  And if you've seen those HD games on the iPad, you know that the graphics are amazing.

In a couple of months, Apple could be creating another disruption.  This time, in console gaming through Apple TV.  Nintendo could see further losses.

One additional issue we might want to think about:  Vita.  Wonder how that's gonna perform.

Source: MSNBC.

Next iPhone Still Coming This Sept But No Way iPad 3 In November

iPhone coming out about mid-September.  That sounds right.  The chatter just before the iPad 2 launch is very similar to what we're hearing now for the next iPhone.

But as for the iPad 3 in November.  Forget about it.  Not gonna happen.  Don't think I'm right.  Go back the last five years or more  Since when have Apple released a product after Halloween?  Nada.  In fact, one year, Apple had to issue a public statement telling the public that their Holiday lineup was set and nothing new was going to be updated for that year.

As for when the iPad 3 is coming out, that's anyone's guess.  If there is even an iPad 3.

Source: Macrumors.

Amazon's Tablet Plans are Real And Coming This Fall

Amazon is currently getting things ready to ramp up their own Kindle tablet.  I'm using Kindle because its the brand that is most popular within Amazon's own line of products and just as with Barnes and Noble did with Nook and Nook Color, I anticipate that "Kindle" will be very much the name of the tablet.

What's not entirely known are the specs.  Months ago, there was talk that Amazon might include a 4-core chip from Nvidia.  It was a ridiculous notion obviously.  And WSJ is reporting that the the top end tablet will not sport a traditional 10" display but one that is smaller. And there will not be cameras.

I reckon this is probably the result of one of two things.  Amazon really wants to reduce the cost of their tablets or they have yet to develop the skills to build in adequate camera and have been unable to find a source to their likely.

Amazon will be going up against the iPad 2 as well as a second wave of Android tablets.  

You're asking, wait a sec, isn't Amazon's tablet going to be on Android?  Yes and no.  Amazon is probably doing this without Google's blessing and is taking the codes from Gingerbread to do this.  On top of that, this is no unlike what the Chinese "Android" makers do.  They create their own flavor of the Google release.  

And Amazon does have its own app store.