Nokia: A Less For Apple - Don't Be Arrogant and Be Mindful of Unassuming Threats

Over at Clouding Around, I got into what can undo mobile companies these days. Specifically, what has happened to Nokia and other mobile leaders: arrogance and not keeping an eye on threats from startups or new market opportunities.  And while I don't have any fear that Apple under Tim Cook will allow things to fall apart at Cupertino, one cannot help but feel a bit of anxiety from time to time with new product intros and what Apple's competitors roll out.

The key for me is what Apple has planned for 2013 through the 2015 period.  This will be a pivotal time for Apple.  2012 Will continue to have a large Steve Jobs influence.  And while Jobs' spirit will permeate for decades, the echos of his rants and the efforts of his reality distortion field will diminished with time.

iOS 6 will be just what it is:  new iOS improvements.  Where does this take the OS X for the Mac?  For a while, many assumed that OS X will languish in this post-PC era.  We have an idea about Mountain Lion that will be released this summer and Apple has committed itself to annual releases like iOS.  And we have to assume that some day, the two OS could merge into one, technical barriers aside.

Then there is digital distribution and the home.  Apple TV as it is now remains a hobby for Apple.  Given its uses I've seen, Apple TV as it is now will never be able to attack the living room.  Right now, the Xbox remains my choice to hook up to a HDTV.  Perhaps, Apple has not truly found a way to make something great for the living room.  For Apple, if they cannot make a great product, they won't release it.

And yet, in his biography, Steve Jobs did say he cracked the television problem.  It'll be interesting if Tim Cook and friends agree with Steve.

So, why 2013-2015?  Simple.  There will be further mobile convergence for each of the competing platforms.  Also, Microsoft and Intel will continue to wrestle back the momentum that Apple and Android have made.  The tablet market will continue to march into PC territory and it will remain to be seen if Apple can keep the iPad at the top. At this time, the iPad has about 65% of the market - higher if not for the Amazon Kindle selling for a loss at $200.

Furthermore, Apple's iPhone, which went on sale at Verizon Wireless and Sprint in the Christmas quarter of 2011 and growing Chinese market in the first quarter of 2012, has lit the world on fire.  The domination is clear.  Apple has close to 60% of the US smartphone market-share despite two crippling facts.  One, the iPhones are still running on 3G networks and has outsold LTE devices at Verizon.  Two, it's not even on sale at T-Mobile and a plethora of MVNO players.

For Apple to continue to not only stay at the top but retain the growth as if its a startup, it has to identify what where the proverbial hockey puck is headed.  Where is mobile going for the smartphone and tablet market and when to let go of the "trucks" (in this case, I am referring to the Macs)?  And what new markets can it identify to move into - maybe cars or mobile payments?

Friday Movie: World War Z

It's back to zombies.  Actually, we don't post many scary or supernatural stuff for our Friday movie clips/trailers.  We went with the Living Dead game trailer a couple of weeks back but most of the time, it's been scifi or cartoony stuff.

If you don't know, World War Z (wiki) is a book by Max Brooks that chronicled a zombie outbreak origin in China and how humanity dealt with the aftermath of an undead horde hunger for, what else, flesh.  It's written in the style of a documentary.

Here is the official website for WWZ at Random House.  It has been made into a movie starring Brad Pitt.  Unfortunately, the film won't be released until mid-2013.  Meanwhile, if you can't wait and havent' read the book, go get it.  And if you have like I did, reread it again.  It's that awesome.

Now, the video. And have a great weekend!

This second video is Max Brooks' zombie survival trailer.  In this day and age, who doesn't need to prepare for the undead?

Campaigns Should Use Mobile To Make Difference In 2012

We know President Barack Obama's election team in 2008 made very successful use of social media to get their messages across and really got their base excited, particularly the youth vote. So you know team 2012 will continue that tradition and top even their successful effort.  Meanwhile, the GOP with Mitt Romney will at the very least try to duplicate that effort and may even have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Mobile and social media roles in political campaigns are just in their infancy.  The successful Tea Party movement that toppled the arrogant Pelosi regime in the House of Representatives in 2010 showed just that.  Now, the Democrats and its allies will do the same to the rigid and impotent Bohner era.  As you can see, I don't like either parties much.

In going through the presidential campaigns on the web, I tried to see how they compare on the mobile devices like the iPhone.  Not surprisingly, both the Obama and Romney campaigns wisely have their own mobile sites.

Here is President Obama's mobile site and here is Governor Romney's mobile site.  What's interesting is how generic they both appear to be.  The Romney campaign decides to go with the menu on its front page while the President's webmasters went with the direct appeal to voters.  It makes sense.  The President's reelection is virtually assured if he can get the voters who who voted him in to believe he has done as he promised.  Surprisingly, there is nothing in the Romney site that played up his supposed economic strength.  

The Obama site played up Clooney. I'm not sure what that will accomplish. Oh, right, the woman votes.  I learned nothing about what a second Obama term means.  With Romney's blogs, it's attack, attack, where he's been, and attack.  Both campaigns offered little red meat.  However, President Obama did offer some of his accomplishments (though the GOP/conservatives/Fox News would beg to differ) so far in his first term.  

As far as webapps, I think it's a tie with a slight edge for the President.

I also did an app search and found it difficult to see if either campaigns have their own mobile apps.  I had to do a Google search to confirm whether an app was truly the official campaign app.  There is obviously the White House app.  Then on the President's desktop site, I found a link for apps for his campaign.  It's for the iPhone and iPads only.  No Android.  Why?

And the Mitt Romney apps?  Nothing.  There is an app in the iPhone app store called Top Conservative 2012 with Mitt Romney's picture and that's as close as it gets.

For mobile apps, clearly, the Obama camp is leading here.  However, the lack of Android apps is clearly a mistake.  

What I also see is the lack of efforts on both sides beyond meshing social and mobile with a clear strategy to convey their messages and maneuver into advantageous positions.  I like to see points and counterpoints for each move by the campaigns. Maybe a section ready for users to follow on debates.  

Mobile is already huge and will have an even bigger role than radio and television.  I hope in the next couple of months, we'll see both sides take mobile warriors more seriously.

Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act Passed By House: Perhaps, We Are Moving No More Online Privacy

Source:  CNET

This is kinda scary, no?  The House just passed by an 80 votes margin the Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act, CISP.  It awaits voting in the Senate.  President Barack Obama has already threatened to veto it.

Still, the day will come when we will not be as vigilant and with a president, who isn’t too concerned with basic sense of privacy, will sign a similar legislation into law.

But don’t take my word for this.  You should try to learn more about CISP and privacy on your own.  However, when President Obama and Ron Paul agree on this issue, it is worth it for us to take note.

It doesn’t matter if you’re politics is right or left of center, the far right as well as the far left are so extreme that should they ever come into power, the powers granted by CISP is simply too tempting not to abuse for their own political gains or agendas.

And while amendments were passed to make sure that there would be enough support for its passage, none of what I've seen suggests that the threat to privacy and basic rights won't be violatd.

The issue of cybersecurity is a very important issue.  And in the name of national security, we do need a cohesive reponse against cyber attacks.  However, let’s not let fearmongering do away with basic privacy and civil rights.   When both liberal and conservative groups band together out of fear that CISP could be used by the government to spy on its own citizens, that is a very scary thing.

Another measure supported by the White House and some in the Senate gives Homeland Security the directive to protect the US from cyberattacks. However, regardless who's in charge, considerable oversight and common sense is required.

Here is a very good FAQ on this matter from Paid Content.

This Display of Obsession with Apple Showed Samsung Gone Off Deep-End

Source:  Droid-Life Via Android & Me.

This is sad on so many levels.  Samsung hired a marketing group to stage a protest outside Apple’s Australian store, completely with a mob and shouting.  The purpose, if you can it that, is to get the Apple fanboys to wake up – but to what?  That Samsung devices are superior?  Or that owners of Apple products are being “cultitized” (I just made that word up)?

Sammie, your devices can stand on their own against Apple’s iThings.  No need to do this weirdness.  This would just turn people off.  I know this is just a play on those commercials you ran last year but this is a bit far. It'll only turn people off.

Just recently, analysts are beginning calling the mobile war not one between Apple and Android but rather between Apple and Samsung.  That kind of attention is good for competition.  This ain't.

Douchy Guys Wrote Hit Piece About Apple That Made No Sense and Got Facts Wrong

I refuse to link to this post I just read on Yahoo.  And Yahoo, shame on you for posting it.  The gist of the article is that if you take China out of the equation, Apple would have missed its most recent quarterly earnings.  I like what one of the commenterx of the post said in response:  if you take China out of the equation, no global company would meet estimates.

And while I won’t be linking to the post by Jeff Macke, who sounded like a douche,  I will tell you who the idiot Jeff quoted in his article.  His name is David Garrity, the head of GVA Research.  The head of this research firm.  Seriously, right?  The head of a research firm making this kind of analysis.

My guess is that this dude (or both of them), not only doesn’t get the concept of a global economy, but he probably bought into the fear that caused Apple’s stock to tank over 10% in the last couple of weeks.  So, these two duches likely shorted the stock or had been waiting to buy in when the price goes lower and lost lots of money or opportunity to make money.  Whichever way, they’re now bitter about it.

And you know what’s worse?  In talking about China, the post mentioned China Mobile.  China Mobile is the biggest carrier in the world with over half a billion subscribers.  So, here’s the kicker:  China Mobile is not an official iPhone carrier.  Apple would have likely sold anywhere from 40-45 million iPhones if China Mobile was a carrier.

Over all, expect hit pieces like this to crop up over the next couple of weeks to try and weakening the renewed confidence investors has in Apple.  Lots of people who bet wrongly on Apple’s earnings are gonna need to find a way to get back the money they lost.

Again, I refuse to link to it because it’s so dumb.  And another proof of this a funny response from another commenter:  If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

Here’s my response: if you take out all of the iPhone sales, Apple would have massively miss its earning estimate and likely posted a huge loss.

Note:  if you really want to read this dumb article posted on Yahoo, I've given you enough details that you can probably go google it yourself.

Google's Mobile Domination & Apple's iPhone Success Means A Facebook Phone Makes Zero Sense

Apple may have achieved nearly 60% of total smartphone share in the US.  This news coupled with the talk that HTC and Facebook are working together to bring a phone that focuses on all things social within Facebook’s realm.  The question for Facebook is why brother and if it insists anyway, which OS will Zuckerberg use?

I’m not sure that Apple can sustain this level of domination in the long run.  Nor am I saying that it won’t.  These things have a way of playing out and Android’s appeal does not seem to have diminished despite the iPhone 4S success.  The threat to Android comes from execution, not the OS itself.  Forking, delays in updates, and social issues like security and privacy are what could make things difficult in the long run.  It has nothing to do with what Apple is doing.

However, the iPhone 5 is coming out in six to seven months.  While that seems like a long time away, the above mentioned issues for Android isn’t going to get solved in that time.

Now comes to Facebook’s smartphone.  I don’t know what to call it.  fPhone?  fbPhone?  How about zPhone for Zuckerberg?  Yeah, let me go with the zPhone.

Facebook has a close relationship with Microsoft.  Microsoft is both a source of resources and an investor.  Forking Android is the obvious solution but I wonder if Redmond might try to get FB to try out Windows 8?  It would certainly be a huge boost for Microsoft.  I mean let’s face it.  The whole Windows Phone market is Nokia’s Lumia, nothing more and it has not yet caught fire on the scale both Microsoft and Nokia had hope for.  I know that the mobile war is about the long game but you’d at least want signs that things are promising.

So, forking Android is the obvious choice for Facebook to use in the zPhone.  And if Microsoft and FB can work out a deal to use Windows 8, it would mean forking Windows to some extent as well.

But why bother with the zPhone at all?  Does FB believe that it can persuade its legions of users to abandon iOS and Android in favor of its own device?  With FB’s track record regarding security and privacy, it’s highly doubtful that it can appease both users, marketers, and regulators all at once.

And if FB does really come out with its own phone, it needs to continue onward to developing its own music and video store.  It’ll need an app store.  Oh, why stop at the zPhone.  It’ll need a zTablet to compete with the iPad.  And with Apple possibly releasing its own television, FB is going to need its zHDTV as well.

Oh, and there already was a Facebook phone from HTC.  It's called the Status.  And the current status of the Status is not so good.