3DS Sales Show Still A Market For Dedicated Mobile Gaming Machine - But Pie Shrinking For Nintendo And Sony

News come that Nintendo managed to sell 4.5 million 3DS in the US alone.  While the global 3DS sales figure is more elusive, let’s say closer to 20 million units (I made this up – 10 million or so for Asia and another 5 million for EU and the rest of the world), it’s a viable platform.  Perhaps, we might even seen the platform go across and move closer to 75 to 100 million in five years or so.  And given the still vast size of dedicated mobile gaming from the likes of Nintendo and Sony, the question for gaming developers is where to invest your limited resources.

Obviously, the iPhone, iPad, and Android devices have wrecked havoc on the dedicated mobile gaming market and mobile gaming in general will shift towards smartphones and tablets.  In just three years, the collective gaming prowess of iOS and Android have taken over the gaming revenue and it’ll only get worse over time.  Mobile gaming is estimated to take 58% of all revenue while incumbent players like Nintendo and Sony will collectively take 42%.  It was only in 2009, the dual powerhouses had 70% of the market.  2012 Will like yield a similar trend (Phandroid).

It’s obvious that if you’re a small developer, you go which ever way the wind blows.  What if you’re a developing and publishing powerhouse?  You might want to still support the dedicated Nintendo and/or Sony mobile machines but at what point do you make Apple and Google devices a priority – giving smartphone gamers the same level of game play and depth that DS, PSP, and 3DS players are used to?

So far, Vita sales are par at best and it took a big price cut from Nintendo to get the 3DS to where it is today.  It begs the question at what point does Nintendo and Sony begin to think if their development dollars should really be spent on hardware or, perhaps, take things into a whole new direction.

For instance, Sony layered on top of Android - the result, the Xperia Play.  Sony has found some success and is likely to move forward with future plans.  Nintendo may need to consider similar moves if it wishes to remain a dominant hardware player.  Or perhaps, Nintendo may consider a move along the line of former foe, Sega, and focus exclusively on gaming development only.

Future Mobile Development Likely To Have Chinese Influence

Apple recognizes the importance of the Chinese market to its mobile and computing focuses.  Mac sales are doing pretty well, growing faster than the US and Europe while mini-riots break out for iOS launches. Oh, let's not forget about the gray market for Apple goods because Chinese launches lag US and EU launches by months.

So, when Apple release the Mountain Lion beta, few were surprised that Apple integrated some popular social network and email services popular in China and most agree it makes a lot of sense for Apple to make it easier for the Chinese mobile warriors to integrate their contacts, calendars, and social needs into their iOS devices and Macs.  

As a Weibo user (because I'm trying to learn Chinese), this is perfect.  At this time, I'm unable to figure out how to access Weibo but if you're a fluent Chinese speaker and uses this Chinese version of Twitter, you'd find it very useful.  I know I would, again, if I can figure out how to access it from my US version of Mountain Lion.  

I've no doubt that iOS 6 will bring similar integration for the same Chinese social services.  

And this is likely just the beginning as Apple begins to show the fruits of its work to make its products even more appealing to the Chinese market.  And it's likely that others like Microsoft will offer Chinese specific features.  We know that Renren, a Facebook clone, will headline Windows 8.  

Essentially, we are seeing the beginning of developments for the average Chinese mobile warrior.  And going forward, not only will such developments accelerate, it's like future OS developments, specially in the mobile area, will be influenced by the Chinese market.  

As a mobile fan, I am excited by the possibilities, especially if it's develop by Apple's focus on ease of use and on what "just works".  

Note:  I'm unable to find some sharing options like Weibo and Vimeo-like video sites.  I hope it's just the fact that Mountain Lion is in beta and that once the final version ships, those options will be right there along side Twitter, Vimeo, and others.  

Another Note:  It's really weird that video sharing via Youtube isn't an option while Google account integration is still there.  However, Youtube sharing via iMovie is still there.  Perhaps, by signing into a Google account, there is no need for a separate Youtube login.  Boy, this war between Apple and Google is really making OS development very interesting.

Concidence: The Winner of the Apple's 25 Billionth Download Is...

The winner of the 25 billionth app downloader from the App Store is Chunli Fu of China.  Rumor is that he downloaded Where's My Water?, which he didn't pay for since it was the free version.  Nevertheless, I want to congratulate the dude for it.  He deserves it.  Fu won $10,000 as well as a lot of recognition.

Now, comes the part that I wonder if this is just too much of a coincidence that with China being such an important market and opportunity, an iOS winner from China wins this prize.  I mean, seriously, you cannot ask for a better PR campaign than this.  It's likely that with all things Apple, this is getting a lot of positive press.

On top of that, there is the iPad trademark battle with Proview.  I'm not sure whether if Apple or Proview has a more positive image in China.  I read a post that many Chinese on Weibo believe Proview is attempting to extort money from a cash rich company like Apple.  So I reckon Fu as winner of the $10,000 prize is a very positive thing.  

Look, I have to point this out.  I'm not saying that Apple fixed it so that the winner will come from China.  However, Apple could not have asked for a better winner than Mr. Fu.

Source:  AFP.

Total Users Versus Active Users - Social Networks Could Be Losing Steam

We know that social networks like Facebook to Google+ to Foursquare love to boast their number of citizens (users). It sounds great and in Facebook's case, it helps to let the financial community know that they've got about 700 million users as they go IPO. There are also reports that Google+ is like a ghost town and only Googlers are the ones still using it after the initial interests from the media and the curious. Then there is location-based social networks like Foursquare. Personally, I can say that the number active users among my friends list has dropped by 2/3. So, what exactly is going on here?

And while Facebook claims to have hundreds of millions of daily users, not quite near the 700 million users that they have, many of them are what I called "lurkers". They're people who sign up for social networks or other services but rarely participate in general or as the network as it is mean to be.

After all, according to Wikipedia on lurkers, lurkers account for 90% of online groups. This data was collected in 2000. With some benefit of the doubt, maybe today's social networks have the ability to encourage more participation but it is doubtful there is more than a marginal improvement from 2000.

Now, it would appear that my numbers, say from Foursquare, is much better than the average Joe social network users. I have to come clean and note that I have an advantage over most other users. Looking through my list of friends, more than 50% of my friends on Foursquare work in the tech field - many for companies with social components like entertainment, gaming, and music or video.

For Facebook, one third of my friends on Facebook work in the tech or cloud industry and they account for a vast majority of status updates. And on Google+, I don't have an estimate but Google+ seems to be turning into Twitter without the 140 character limits. Going through the circles, the cirle with just my personal friends last updated on January 31. As for my other circles, those with reasons to share links, pics like art, or writings, they are constantly being updated. For about three weeks, I did not log into my Google+ account due to information overload. Hundreds of links streaming by, there is only so much I can absorb.

It's likely most users have similar experiences online. I do my share of updates, a lot through Twitter, but here isn't a whole lot for me to share either. I have vowed to take more pics and share them but that is as far as I am willing to go.

I am afraid that even as the momentum of social networks allow for them to increase the number of users, participation among users is likely to drop or 9 out of 10 new users will turn out to be lurkers. Maybe that might be fine for selling ads, it is doubtful that lurkers are clicking through the ads.

There is time for social networks to find a way to retain eyeballs. We are still the infancy state of social network growth but time is running out. Violating privacy is not going to help. Is through new innovative designs, features, and incentives that will keep us coming back.

I continue to use Foursquare to keep track of cool places I go and only regularly check in at Souplantations of the discounts. But as soon as I find another way to track myself without having to share it with Foursquare, I doubt I'll use it much. Personally, I am not much of a lurker.

I have talked about Facebook, Google+, and Foursquare. Where does Apple fit into all this?

Microsoft Casts Stones At Android And iPhone Without Realizing Its House Doesn't Even Have Walls

Meet Terry Myerson, head of Windows Phone at Microsoft, needs to talk less and work more on giving us clear answers about the future of WP phones, upgrades, and who can or cannot use Windows Phone 8. See, WP7 and WP8 are entirely different OSes and current WP7 phones are unlikely to ever see WP8.

At the Mobile World Congress, Mr. Myerson bashed both Apple's iPhone and Andoid for having shoddy updates. For one thing, he accused Apple of making older iPhones slower thrrough new iOS versions so users will be forced to buy new iPhones. Meanwhile, he said Android devices hardly ever get upgrades.

I can't say that Android devices hardly get upgrades. They're slow in coming and only one or too units that I can think of, the original Samsung Galaxy S, isn't slated for Android 4, Ice Cream Sandwich, but that matter still has not been quite settled yet.

As for Apple purposefully making older iPhones slower through updates, I've often often about that. As a matter of fact, I think all software companies do that. The biggest culprit is Microsoft itself. In fact, as a Windows user for since Windows 3, I can attest to the fact that it became an tradition to wonder if new versions, including updates, makes systems slower on purpose

And I am not just talking about going form Windows 98 to Windows XP. I am referring to even simple updates. I am also referring debacles like Vista. If anything, Vista was about getting users to upgrade. Buying new PCs is means also new Windows sales.

At least, iPhones are upgradeable for at least three years after their initial purchase. And with Android devices, there is always the option of the Android community pulling together to get new versions into the hands of users.

Now, let's talk about Windows Phone a bit. WP7 is vastly different from Windows Phone 8, which is based on Windows 8 itself. And WP7 is based on the older Windows CE kernel. It'll take a lot of work for Microsoft to get WP8 to work on older hardware, some of which as less than a year old.

So, I ask you. Who is forcing users to upgrade their phones on purpose here! In less than a year, no less?

More at Neowin.

 

Brazilian Manufactured iPhones Now On The Market - How Did that Happen?

News now that iPhones made in Brazil are on the market. With the statements made that jobs like manufacturing consumer electronics not coming back to the US, specifically attributed Steve Jobs to President Obama, we have to wonder how is Brazil about to get Apple and Foxconn to invest in a local manufacturing plant?

Now, let me put this out: can Apple do something like this in Mexico? Or maybe the US? We can forget about blue states like California but how about red states like Texas?

Foxconn likely received a large incentive from the national and local government to do this. At the same time, we have to wonder just how they can achieve the infrastructure to do this.

Labor issues aside, I like to see government officials look into seeing how this was achieved and how feasible is this go duplicated in the US.

My guess is that even with the technology and logistics solved, special interests like labor is going to make things very difficult to convince Apple or others to invest in an infrastructure to build iOS devices here.




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Apple IIc Running OS X - Sorta

We have an old Apple IIc in the garage. Last I checked, it still booted up. Also, last I checked, it was still running BASIC. And yet, someone found a way to get OS X to run on it. HOW?!

There is a G4 Mac Mini in there. Not sure why they didn't fit the newer and slimmer Mac mini in there if they're going to go through all this trouble. Anyway, this has me thinking about dusting off the old IIc and fire it up and relive my childhood.

More at Mental Hygiene.